The Florida Gators’ path in March Madness is now clear, as they were revealed as the No. 1 seed for the West on Sunday night.
This will be Florida’s second-straight appearance in the big dance under head coach Todd Golden. It’s also the third time in program history that Florida is the No. 1 seed, with them last doing so under legendary coach Billy Donovan in 2014.
This season has set a high expectation for the UF squad. Last season ended in heartbreak as the Gators lost to a Colorado Buffaloes team led by current Magic forward Tristan da Silva. To avoid this outcome, the third-best offense in basketball must show up. This offense was present in the SEC tournament as they won by an average of 15 points en route to an SEC Championship. This included wins over the Midwest No. 2 seed Tennessee Volunteers and the East No. 2 seed Alabama Crimson Tide.
The Gators are looking to grab their third-ever National Championship and the first under Golden. To do so, they must run the table against a tough West region. With First-Team All-American guard Walter Clayton Jr. leading the way for the Gators, they have a real chance to make it.
Round of 64: #16 Norfolk State
The first of these challenges will come against the 16th seeded Norfolk State Spartans. The Spartans were crowned the Mid-Eastern American Conference Champions with a one-point victory in the title game. Led by senior guard Brian Moore Jr., Norfolk State is looking to become just the third No. 16 seed to ever beat the No. 1 seed.
This will be a tall task as Florida is a well-oiled machine. The Spartans average eight less points than the Gators while allowing the same points per game. Their only common opponent, the Tennessee Volunteers, beat Norfolk State earlier in the season by 15 points. If the Gators are to beat Norfolk State, it would mark their first tournament win since 2021.
Round of 32: #8 UConn / #9 Oklahoma
If the Gators capture the victory on Friday, they will face the winner of UConn-Oklahoma. This game is crucial for Florida, as these teams are not equal on skill level or experience.
Starting with the Huskies, they are the reigning back-to-back National Champions. Coached by Dan Hurley, UConn finished third in the Big East. This season was tumultuous compared to their previous two, as they landed as the eighth seed. This was due to a streaky season, losing to four teams that did not make the tournament. Still, the Huskies are a formidable foe, led by freshman forward Liam McNeeley. ESPN currently has UConn as a 70% chance to move on, and if so, this matchup will be tough for the Gators.
On the other side of the coin are the Oklahoma Sooners. The Sooners played in the same bloodbath conference as the Gators, finishing 13th in the SEC. These two teams have already matched up this season, with Florida defeating them by 22 points. If the Sooners pull off the upset, they are faced with another juggernaut in Florida. However, never say never for a team who just narrowly lost to three-seeded Kentucky in the SEC Tournament.
Round of 16: #5 Memphis / #12 Colorado State / #4 Maryland / #13 Grand Canyon
This is where predicting the path for Florida becomes much more difficult. If they were to move on to the round of 16, they would face the winner of Memphis-Colorado State or the winner of Maryland-Grand Canyon. None of these teams would be an “easy” win for Florida, as all but one of these teams won their conference title. The only outlier, Maryland, lost in the semifinal by one point against future Big 10 Champion Michigan.
Memphis had a great season in the American Athletic Conference. Under former Magic great Penny Hardaway, they captured their second conference title in three years. Behind Second-Team All-American guard PJ Haggerty, the Tigers had statement wins over UConn, Clemson and Ole Miss. They also went 16-2 in their conference, dominating their competition. The only downside to this is the lack of competition in the AAC. This lack of true challenge in conference play could lead to an early exit for the Tigers.
Now onto Colorado State. The Rams won the Mountain West title for just the second time ever. This road was not an easy one, as they went against Utah State, a team in the tourney, and Boise State, a First-Four out team. However, the Rams did not record a ranked win the entire season. Their only ranked game was a loss against Ole Miss. Colorado State does have experience in March as they have made the tournament in three of the past four seasons. ESPN currently has this game as a tossup, so either team has a real chance at moving on.
Florida’s other pair of potential opponents are not as close in strength. The fourth-seeded Maryland Terrapins, currently ranked as the #11 team by AP, finished the regular season second in the Big 10. Led by freshman center Derik Queen, the Terrapins had a good run in conference play. They performed well against ranked opponents, yet they finished 4-5 against them in the regular season. All five of their losses came with an average margin of defeat of 3.4.
This is in stark contrast to the No. 12 seeded Grand Canyon Lopes. The Lopes faced no ranked opponents this season, but they did face the aforementioned Norfolk State Spartans. In this matchup, Grand Canyon won by 18. They also faced Bryant, another tournament team, and won 112-66. For the Lopes to win, senior forward JaKobe Coles must be on his A-game.
Elite Eight
Each of these potential matchups have a 1.56% chance of happening. Due to the unpredictable nature of the NCAA tournament, it is hard to guess who exactly Florida would be set to face to make it to the Final Four. However, there are a few strong contenders for the final spot. As a criteria, a ranked win this season will be used to filter out some teams. #11 Drake, #14 UNC Wilmington, and #15 Omaha did not notch a ranked win this season. Each of the other five collected at least one ranked win and/or are ranked themselves.
The most formidable opponent is No. 2 seeded St. John’s. Led by legendary coach Rick Pitino, the Red Storm stormed their way through the Big East (no pun intended). Junior guard RJ Luis Jr. led the team this year, enough to be named a Second-Team All-American. They went 30-4 in the regular season, with all but one loss coming against tournament teams. St. John’s is #5 in the AP Poll and have been in the top 10 almost all season. This ranks as the hardest potential matchup for the Gators in the West.
The Red Storm are not the only tough team in their region as third-seeded Texas Tech is right there with them. The Red Raiders had their best season since making it to the championship game half a decade ago. New Mexico transfer JT Toppin was the X-factor to this success, being named a Second-Team All-American for his efforts. Their biggest win of the year came in Houston, beating a current No. 1 seed. Texas Tech fell just short in the Big 12 semifinals, losing to Arizona, the eventual champions. Yet, they are still a great team, ranked #9 in the AP poll.
Then comes No. 6 seeded Missouri. The Mizzou Tigers finished sixth in a tough SEC this year, getting wins over Alabama, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Kansas, and even Florida. The Gators got revenge in the SEC tournament, but these wins show true strength from the Tigers. Despite being a six seed, their resume in the most competitive conference speaks for itself. Kansas City native Mark Mitchell led the team this year, and will look to do so in the NCAA Tournament.
There is also another blue blood in the West in the Kansas Jayhawks. Led by legendary coach Bill Self, the Jayhawks are making their 35th straight tournament appearance. This has been a down year for the program as they finished sixth in the Big 12. Despite starting the season as #1 in the AP Poll, they finished unranked. This was due to large losses to both in-conference and out of conference opponents. Hunter Dickinson leads the Jayhawks this season, averaging 17.6 PPG and 10.0 RPG. He was named a Third-Team All-American. With a deep roster and the experience to back them up, the Jayhawks could easily make a deep run.
The final opponent being covered are the No. 10 seeded Arkansas Razorbacks. Under former Kentucky head coach John Calipari, they are making their fourth appearance this decade. D.J. Wagner followed Calipari from Kentucky, and has made an instant impact. Along with junior forward Adou Thiero, they finished ninth in the conference. With wins over Kentucky, Missouri, and Mississippi State, the Razorbacks have had a great first season under their new head coach. This matchup of two prolific coaches in the first round should prove to be electric.
While it is hard to guarantee anything in the tournament, the Gators are coming in as a huge favorite to win it all. Florida is the odds-on favorite to win at a +325 on most betting sites.
With a stacked starting roster of Clayton Jr., Will Richard, Alijah Martin, Thomas Haugh, and Alex Condon, they can compete with the best of the best. Combine that with their deep bench, and Gainesville might be bringing home their first trophy since their repeat in 2006 and 2007.