After enduring a disappointing finish in the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals, the Miami Heat will now begin their 2022 off-season preparations. This offseason will be very important for Miami, as they are expected to make one last splash in the offseason to achieve their championship aspirations. This will be easier said than done, however, as Miami is in a rough financial situation. According to Sportrac, Miami is projected to have $-18.7 million in practical cap space, with a possible $-5.8 million in maximum cap space. In spite of this, Miami will be able to use the full $10.2 million Mid-Level and $4.0 Bi-Annual Exceptions, along with a $1.7 million Trade Exception due to trading KZ Okpala to Oklahoma City. With this said, Miami will need to answer three key questions this offseason in order to reach its championship aspirations.
1. Will Miami Keep or Trade Sharpshooter Duncan Robinson?
There’s no doubt that Miami has mastered the winning with undrafted talent. From 19-year veteran Udonis Haslem to youngsters Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and Omer Yurtseven, Miami’s ability to use and develop these Undrafted Free Agents has helped them develop one of the deepest rotations in the NBA. In addition to Haslem, Vincent, and Yurtseven, Miami also helped develop former Division 3 Transfer Duncan Robinson into one of the NBA’s best sharpshooters. In 239 career games with Miami, Robinson has averaged 11.9 PPG while shooting 43.5% from the field, 40.6% from three-point range, and 86.0% from the free-throw line. Since making the Heat’s rotation, Robinson has also ranked inside the top ten for three-point field goals in three straight seasons (2019-2022). Based on Robinson’s career shooting success, Miami decided to sign Robinson to a five-year, $90 million extension, making him the Heat’s fourth highest-paid player.
With this said, Robinson’s poor 2022 playoff performance may have Miami rethinking its decision to extend Robinson. In 13 games this postseason, Robinson averaged 10.9 PPG while shooting 39.9% from the field, 37.2% from three-point range, and 83.6% from the free-throw line. While Robinson’s playoff shooting splits didn’t drop off too much, he was a major liability on defense. As a team that prides itself on defense, Robinson was the weak link, which was evident in their seven-game series against Boston. Robinson’s inability to defend and shoot the ball caused Head Coach Erik Spoelstra to give more playing time to Vincent and Strus. Despite these struggles, it’s still inexcusable for Miami to push Robinson out of their rotation, considering how much they paid Robinson. If Miami isn’t completely set on Robinson contributing to their rotation, they should look to trade Robinson.
Potential Trade Package Involving Duncan Robinson
If Miami decides to shop Robinson, there will be interest from many other NBA teams. Over the last three seasons, Robinson has made 752 three-pointers, the second-most in the NBA over that span (Buddy Hield, 815 three-pointers). Many teams could use a reliable shooter like Robinson, and may overlook his defensive struggles. While Owner Pat Riley may look to acquire another superstar talent by trading Robinson, Miami could settle for a smaller trade that makes sense down the road.
Philadelphia Acquires: SG/SF Duncan Robinson, 2026 Second Round Pick
Miami Acquires: PG/SG Furkan Korkmaz, SG/SF Danny Green
In this trade scenario, Miami unloads Robinson’s contract to Philadelphia, where he can provide stable wing play for MVP candidate Joel Embiid, James Harden, and Tyrese Maxey. At 28 years old, Robinson would likely serve as a key piece of the 76ers rotation moving forward, along with Embiid (28 years old), Maxey (21 years old), and Matisse Thybulle (25 years old). As for Miami, they would receive Korkmaz, who was also pushed out of his team’s playoff rotation, and Green, who is a solid two-way forward. By acquiring Green, Miami would be betting on Green to recover from his ACL and LCL tear at age 34, which would be a major gamble. If this pays off and Green completely recovers, his ability to stretch the floor and play defense would be a big upgrade from that of Robinson.
2. Who will Miami Select in the 2022 NBA Draft?
With the 2022 NBA Draft set to begin on June 23rd, Miami has a little more than two weeks to decide who they’ll select with the lone draft pick. The reason Miami does not have a 2022 second-round pick is due to the NBA forcing Miami to forfeit their pick for “violating league rules governing the timing of this season’s free agency discussions” before signing free-agent guard Kyle Lowry to a three-year, $90 million deal. Since the 2021 NBA Finals ended in July, it was announced that all thirty NBA teams could begin discussions with free agents and their representatives on Aug. 2, 2021, at 6 p.m. ET. More than 24 hours before that window opened, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski began reporting that the Heat “aim to be front-runners” to acquire Lowry and by 6:59 p.m. on Aug. 2, the terms of the sign-and-trade that would send Lowry to Miami were reportedly agreed upon. The timing of Wojnarowski’s report suggests that the framework of the contract and the sign-and-trade were agreed upon within an hour of free agency beginning. While it’s highly unlikely that Miami would’ve drafted a prospect better than Lowry in the second round, losing this pick does hurt, as Miami has only one shot to walk from the NBA Draft with a contributing player to their roster.
Round 1, Pick 27: Jaden Hardy, PG/SG, G League Ignite
Entering the 2021-2022 NBA G-League season, Hardy looked like a surefire lottery pick, but has seen his draft stock slip substantially after a subpar season. If Hardy ends up falling to Miami at the end of the first round, the Heat would be wise to draft Hardy and add much-needed offensive firepower. At 6’5″ and 185 pounds, Hardy’s size and athleticism allowed him to positively impact both ends of the floor, as he averaged 17.7 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.2 APG, and 1.3 SPG in 12 games this season. While Hardy did struggle from three-point range this season (26.9%), it’s encouraging to see Hardy use his ball-handling skills to gain separation from defenders on his perimeter shot attempts. Hardy’s quick first step and ability to gain separation off the dribble allowed him to get to the free-throw line often, where he shot an impressive 88.2% from the line. As a dangerous and creative shot-maker off the dribble, Hardy will be a challenging player to defend in the NBA.
Although Hardy played the role of a ball-dominant point guard in the G-League, Hardy wasn’t particularly effective when it comes to protecting the ball. In just 12 games, Hardy committed a team-high 42 turnovers (TPG) and 29 fouls (FPG), which has been the main culprit in Hardy’s draft stock falling. If Hardy is defended by a player with above-average defending skills, then Hardy’s aggressive and undisciplined play will result in many turnovers. In addition to his mistake-prone offensive style, Hardy is also an extremely inefficient scorer. In order to average 17.7 PPG, Hardy attempted 17.1 field goal shots and 6.5 three-point shots on a per-game basis. Over an 82-game regular season, this would mean Hardy would attempt 1,402 field goal attempts and 533 three-point attempts. For context, Hardy would rank second in the NBA in total field-goal attempts and first in three-point attempts in the entire NBA. If Miami does draft Hardy, then they’ll certainly take a major risk on his risky offensive play-style and inefficient shooting, but his upside is unquestionable, and would help shoulder the offensive load.
3. Who Will Miami Need to Resign During Free Agency?
Entering the 2022 offseason, Miami has two main players they may want to resign. These players are P.J. Tucker and Victor Oladipo, both of which played key roles for Miami this season. At 37 years old, Tucker was a great veteran presence off Miami’s bench, averaging 7.6 PPG, 5.5 RPG, and 2.1 APG while shooting 48.4% from the field, 41.5% from three-point range, and 73.8% from the free-throw line. Tucker is entering the second year of his two-year, $14.3 million contract, but has a $7.3 million player option this season. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Tucker leave Miami for another championship-contending team, as he did so with Milwaukee after winning the 2021 NBA Championship. In spite of this, Tucker will likely stick around in Miami, as he seems to be approaching the end of his NBA career.
Unlike Tucker, Oladipo will enter unrestricted free agency searching for a respectable contract from any willing NBA team. When fully healthy, Oladipo has shown that he can produce at an All-Star level, similar to his 2017-2018 All-Star Season in Indiana, when he averaged 23.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 4.3 APG, and 2.4 SPG. Unfortunately, Oladipo hasn’t been very healthy in the last few years, as he’s missed 113 regular-season games over the last two seasons. Luckily for Miami, Oladipo was healthy during the playoffs, and posted a respectable statline of 10.6 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 2.1 APG, and 1.3 SPG while shooting 36.8% from the field and 79.2% from the free-throw line in 15 games. Although it will be expensive to resign Oladipo this offseason, it wouldn’t be a bad decision to keep Oladipo as a solid backup guard to Lowry and 2022 sixth-man of the year award winner Tyler Herro.