The USF Bulls are getting closer to accomplishing one of their goals this season, and that is a berth in the AAC championship game. However, there is one huge hurdle that the Bulls must cross before any postseason plans can be made. And that is the Bulls must win at Navy on Saturday.
Lose and it changes the postseason plans and the complexion of the entire season. Win and the Bulls can do what no USF football team has done before them in the 29-year history of USF football. They could host the AAC Championship game at Raymond James Stadium and be awarded a berth in the College Football Playoffs.
If the Bulls end up tied in relation to a College Football Playoff Position, there is a tie-breaking criterion. It is a composite computer ranking made of Connolly SP+, SportSource TR116 SOR, ESPN SOR, and KPI. The Bulls currently have a 20.3 computer ranking, while the next closest conference member, North Texas, has a 29.3 ranking. East Carolina sits at 43.5, while Navy is at 54.3. This bodes well for USF.
Navy and its fans know what a big game this is. The game has been sold out since the middle of the week. This will be a challenging game for the Bulls. Navy has been consistently good and puts a good product on the field, and they have one of the most unique offenses in college football.
Both teams enter this game with a 7-1 overall record. The Bulls are 4-1 in the conference and are coming off a 55-23 home win against UTSA. Navy is 5-1 in conference play, and coming off a blowout loss to Notre Dame in South Bend, 49-10.
Navy was without their senior quarterback Blake Horvath due to an injury in the Notre Dame loss, but is expected to play this week. Just like our own Byrum Brown, Horvath has been an integral part of the Navy offense this season. He has rushed for 926 yards and 13 touchdowns. He has a 164.9 career QBR.
This is the best running team that USF has faced this season as Navy leads the nation in rushing at 304 yards per game.
Alex Golesh had high praise for the Navy Offense and the play of Blake Horvath. “You have this stigma of what Navy does offensively, that they just run the ball up and down the field. They’ve thrown it incredibly well. When they changed offenses a year ago, it has done wonders for them. They are top 10 in the country in third downs, red-zone offense, yards per attempt, yards per completion, and explosive runs. You’re not talking three games into the season. You’re talking Week 10 here.”
Defensively, the Bulls have done a good job, especially in the latter half of the season against the run. The Bulls are ranked 24th in the nation, allowing 110.1 yards per game. The defense held UTSA running back Robert Henry to just 27 yards in the win last week. Henry was averaging 124 yards per game.
Linebacker Mac Harris also had a few thoughts on Horvath and said it comes down to one simple thing that the Bulls need to do to win this game.
“That quarterback runs their system really well. He’s real confident. He’s not too flashy with anything, but he’s a really, really, really good player. Of course, you’ve got to stop the run. They’re going to use the run to ramp up their play-action pass. But mostly, you just got to stop the run.”
Offensively, Navy may lead the nation in rushing, but USF does not take a back seat to any one when it comes to running the ball.
The Bulls also have one of the best rushing attacks in the country, ranking 10th nationally, averaging 226.9 yards per game on the ground, and have recorded six consecutive games with at least 235 yards on the ground.
Golesh has a great deal of respect for the Navy’s defense. “Defensively, they are so disruptive up front. They are incredibly disruptive from a blitz package standpoint. On both sides of the ball, they are disciplined and sound. They don’t make mistakes. I mean, these guys are soldiers. So, we’ve got to be ready for all of that.”
Four keys to a Bulls win
—Stop the run. The Bulls must be able to keep the Navy triple-option attack in check and not let Blake Horvath beat them.
—Get off the field on third down. Navy is very good at eating up the clock. In last year’s game, Navy had the ball for 38 minutes. The defense must be able to stop Navy on third down.
—Play mistake free football. Against Memphis and North Texas, both on the road, Byrum Brown turned the ball over in the first quarter, and the Bulls had to play from behind.
That can’t happen against a talented team like Navy. The Bulls must play mistake-free football.
—Create turnovers. The Bulls have done as good a job as anyone in the country in creating turnovers. That will need to continue on Saturday for the Bulls to get a win.
USF ranks No. 7 nationally in turnovers created and No. 8 in the country with two turnovers per game. The Bulls also rank No. 14 in the nation in turnovers created.
Author’s Prediction
USF is favored by 10 points in this road contest. I think that is a bit high for a game of this magnitude on the road. I like the Bulls to pull out a win in a close contest, 35-28.
The game kicks off at noon, and will be nationally televised on ESPN 2.