If the sun is shining in Florida in springtime, you can count on another rite of spring: an NHL playoff showdown between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Florida Panthers. These two Atlantic Division rivals have met in the playoffs four out of the last five seasons, with the Lightning leading the playoff series 3-1.
Since 2020, three out of the last five Stanley Cup Champions have come from Florida. The Tampa Bay Lightning played in three consecutive Stanley Cup Finals, winning two and losing one final to the Colorado Avalanche. Then, last season, it was the Florida Panthers’ turn to raise Lord Stanley’s Cup as they beat the Edmonton Oilers in seven games.
The Panthers and the Lightning played 27 seasons as division rivals before their first playoff matchup in 2020-21. Since that first meeting, it seems as sure as taxes that these two in-state rivals will meet in the playoffs.
The Lightning won the first two playoff series’ against the Panthers, defeating Florida in six games of the 2020-21 postseason, and then swept the Panthers in round two of the 21-22 playoffs. The Panthers got some revenge last season, defeating the Lightning in the first round of the NHL playoffs and winning their first Stanley Cup.
The two constants for these teams in this series are the goaltenders—two of the best in Andrei Vasileviskiy for the Lightning and Sergei Bobrovsky for the Panthers. Vasilevskiy has started every game and played most of the minutes in the playoff series, and this year’s playoff matchup should be no different. Vasilevskiy has a 2.33 GAA and a .935 save percentage against Florida in the playoffs, including two shutouts. Bobrovsky has faced the Lightning 12 times in the playoffs, posting a 5-7 record, a .894 save percentage and a 3.14 GAA.
A big question for the Panthers is the health of forward Matthew Tkachuk. All indications point to Tkachuk being healthy and ready to go in game one. However, he has not played since February 20th, when he was injured playing for Team USA in the 4-Nations Face-Off Tournament.
Offensively, in this series, the edge goes to the Lightning. The Lightning had the best offense in the NHL during the regular season, averaging 3.56 goals per game. The Lightning also had four players rack up 80 or more points this season.
Nikita Kucherov led the NHL in scoring with 121 points and also led the league in assists with 84. Brandon Hagel finished with 90 points, Braydon Point had 82 points, and Jake Guentzel finished with 80. All four of those Lightning players recorded 30 or more goals as well. This is Kucherov’s third Art Ross Trophy, and it is a crime that he is not talked about more as the MVP. Kucherov was named the best playmaker by his peers in a vote by the NHL players.
On defense, the Lightning were much better this season, led by Ryan McDonagh, who established a new team record with a plus-minus rating of +33. McDonagh also led the team with 152 blocked shots.
Since February 1st, the Lightning have allowed the sixth-fewest goals in the league at 2.40 a game, and have a penalty kill of 80.3 percent. The Lightning are also fifth on the power play at 25.4 percent, but the Panthers are one of the best teams in the league at scoring shorthanded goals.
When on the power play, the Lightning must ensure they do not let the Panthers create odd-man rushes. The Panthers were top five in short-handed goals this season, led by Sam Reinhart with five. The Panthers offensively are led by their big three: Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe and newly acquired Brad Marchand.
Although all teams are dealing with some injuries, bumps, and bruises this time of year, these teams are relatively healthy.
Luke Glendening should be back and ready for the Lightning on Tuesday. Forward Oliver Bjorkstrand’s status is still uncertain. The Panthers will be without defenseman Aaron Ekblad for the first two games of the series, who is serving a suspension for a failed PED test last month.
Three Lightning Players That Will Have a Big Series
- Jake Guentzel has been an outstanding addition to Tampa Bay’s power play unit. He has played on the first line with Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point and sees action on the second line with Brandon Hagel. Guentzel finished the season with 41 goals and 39 assists for 80 points.
- Gage Goncalves, playing on the third and fourth lines, has played well down the stretch. After a slow start, Concalves finished with eight goals and twelve assists for 20 points.
- Conner Geekie made the Lightning roster out of training camp and got off to a decent start, but really struggled mid-season and was sent back to Syracuse. While at Syracuse, Geekie continued to develop and polish his game. His play will help this team win some games in this series.Geekie finished the season with eight goals and six assists with 14 points.
Game Times
The Lightning will have home-ice advantage for the first round, with game one in Tampa on Tuesday night at 8:30 p.m.
This will be one of the more entertaining first-round matchups. These two teams do not like one another, which should also add some fuel to the fire in this series.
- Game 1, Tuesday: Panthers at Lightning, 8:30 (Scripps, ESPN)
- Game 2, Thursday: Panthers at Lightning, 6:30 (Scripps, TBS)
- Game 3, Saturday: Lightning at Panthers, 1 (Scripps, TBS)
- Game 4, Monday, April 28: Lightning at Panthers, TBA
- Game 5, Wednesday, April 30*: Panthers at Lightning, TBA
- Game 6, Friday, May 2*: Lightning at Panthers, TBA
- Game 7, Sunday, May 4*: Panthers at Lightning, TBA
Author’s Prediction
The Lightning’s offense will be tough to keep down all seven games. They have too much talent. This series will go seven games, with the Lightning winning four games to three and advancing to the second round.