As a result of winning the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, every basketball analyst seems to have their own opinion on who the Orlando Magic should select. Highlighted by Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren, Duke’s Paolo Banchero, and Auburn’s Jabari Smith, Orlando has their choice between three incredibly unique and skilled big men. While Orlando could certainly use any of those three players in their continuous rebuild, the Magic seem to be favoring one prospect over the other two. As stated by ESPN’s Jonathan Givony:
“While Magic executives have made it clear they will conduct a thorough process—even extending beyond the widely believed top three prospects in Smith, Holmgren and Paolo Banchero—most NBA teams firmly believe that’s a formality and that Smith is all but assured to become the top pick.”
Although Smith may not have the defensive dominance that Holmgren has, or the flashy playstyle of Banchero, Smith does hold something that the Magic desperately need: the consistent ability to shoot. While at Auburn this past season, Smith showcased his incredible ability to shoot the ball anywhere on the court, which looked quite familiar to that of two-time NBA Champion Kevin Durant. Here is a comparison of Durant’s and Smith’s shooting stats in their final collegiate season:
Kevin Durant (2006-2007 Season): 35 Games, 47.3% from the field, 40.4% from three-point range, 81.6% from the free-throw line, 58.7% true shooting, 53.6% effective field goal.
Jabari Smith (2021-2022 Season): 34 Games, 42.9% from the field, 42.0% from three-point range, 79.9% from the free-throw line, 57.0% true shooting, 52.1% effective field goal.
In nearly every major shooting category, Smith is just a few percentages off of Durant’s shooting numbers, showing just how good of a shooter Smith is. This has certainly warranted some draft-day comparisons of Smith to Durant, similar to what the Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor said:
“Smith can pull up and make jumpers from anywhere, even under pressure, or hit turnaround shots from the post. Few players boast both Smith’s size and shooting skill. Some of the clutch shots he’s made this year looked awfully like Kevin Durant. Smith lacks KD’s handle, but he’s already good enough to get a bucket even against a tightly contested defender.”
While Smith may not have the same hall-of-fame career that Durant has had, if Orlando can get a fraction of that from Smith, then Orlando could certainly see their rebuild take a turn for the best and return to the top of the Eastern Conference.
Round 1, Pick 1: Jabari Smith, SF/PF, University of Auburn
Similar to Gonzaga’s Holmgren, Smith is an incredibly unique draft prospect with a great set of all-around skills. Standing at 6’10” and 220 pounds, Smith has an incredibly well-rounded offensive game, averaging 16.9 PPG, 7.4 RPG, and 2.0 APG in 34 games this past season. In addition to this, Smith’s fluid shooting mechanics gives him the ability to score at all three levels of the floor. As a result, Smith shot 42.9% from the field, 42.0% from three-point range, and 79.9% from the free-throw line. Smith’s ability to elevate his team isn’t limited on offense, however. Thanks to his aforementioned size and his 7’1″ Wingspan, Smith could successfully guard any opposing player, including shifter guards, as shown by his 90.7 defensive rating (Eighth in SEC) and 3.8 defensive box plus/minus (14th in SEC). While Smith could certainly put some healthy weight on in preparation for the NBA, his overall game has no glaring flaws, making him an excellent choice for Orlando at No. 1.
Round 2, Pick 32: Andrew Nembhard, PG/SG, University of Gonzaga
As a 22-year-old draft prospect with four years of college experience, Nembhard doesn’t quite fit the mold of the common NBA Draft Prospect. With this said, Nembhard’s consistent collegiate production, veteran leadership, and his great showing at the NBA Draft Combine have pushed his draft stock up by a considerable amount. At 6’5″ and 193 pounds, Nembhard is built like a true point guard, and possesses exceptional playmaking and scoring skills as a result. In 32 games with Gonzaga this past season, Nembhard averaged 11.8 PPG, 3.4 RPG, and 5.8 APG, all career-highs. In addition to this, Nembhard was a fantastic shooter for the Bulldogs, shooting 45.2% from the field, 38.3% from three-point range, and 87.3% from the free-throw line. It’s also worth noting that Nembhard is a feisty defender with a high motor, as he averaged 1.6 SPG (Fourth in WCC) and notched 51 total steals (Fourth in WCC) this past season.
Despite this high praise for Nembhard’s 2021-2022 season, many draft analysts believed that Nembhard would still go undrafted in the 2022 NBA Draft. After his performances at the draft combine, however, Nembhard has changed the consensus opinion on his ability to succeed in the NBA. During his five-on-five scrimmage on June Ninth, Nembhard notched 26 points and eleven assists, which was the most assists in an NBA Combine Scrimmage since 2018. Of all the draft prospects on the court, Nembhard looked like the only capable floor general, and seems to be ready to contribute to an NBA roster on day one. Of course, Nembhard could also lower the number of turnovers and fouls he commits, as he totaled 62 turnovers (1.9 TPG) and 64 personal fouls (2.0 FPG) this season. As previously mentioned, Nembhard’s all-around game and veteran presence would be a fantastic addition to any NBA team, including Orlando.
Round 2, Pick 35: Walker Kessler, C, University of Auburn
In preparation for Mo Bamba’s impending free agency decision, Orlando should look for Bamba’s possible replacement, either through free agency or the NBA Draft. If Orlando parts ways with Bamba, then Auburn’s Kessler would be a seamless fit into Orlando’s frontcourt. Standing at 7’1″ and 245 pounds, Kessler was an unmovable force in the paint, as he notched 4.6 BPG, 155 total blocks, and an 83.0 defensive rating, all of which led the nation. In addition to this, Kessler’s uncanny ability to defend the paint paired well with fellow collegiate teammate Jabari Smith, giving Auburn one of the most potent frontcourt in college basketball. Kessler’s dominance isn’t just limited to his defense, however, as Kessler was a scoring machine at Auburn. Throughout the 2021-2022 season, Kessler averaged a career-high 11.4 PPG and 8.1 RPG while shooting 60.8% from the field and 70.2% on two-point attempts.
While Kessler’s upside as a two-way center that controls the paint is promising, it may also be his biggest weakness as an NBA Draft Prospect. For starters, Kessler just doesn’t fit into the modern-day mold of an NBA big-man. Similarly to Purdue’s Trevion Williams, Kessler’s offense is limited to the paint, as Kessler shot 20.0% from downtown and only made ten three-point shots this season. Furthermore, Kessler struggled with committing turnovers and fouls, as he totaled 37 turnovers (1.1 TPG) and 88 personal fouls (2.6 FPG) in 34 starts this season. In spite of this, it is encouraging to see Kessler still attempt three-point shots and still attack and defend the paint at an aggressive level, which entails his fiery playstyle. If Kessler can clean up his shooting efficiency and mistakes, he would be a great addition to Orlando in the second round.
Check out our Other Orlando Magic Mock Drafts:
Official 2022 NBA Mock Draft 1.0 of the Orlando Magic: Magic Double Up on Prospects from Duke
Official 2022 NBA Mock Draft 2.0 of the Orlando Magic: Magic Build Around Wendell Carter Jr.
Official 2022 NBA Mock Draft 3.0 of the Orlando Magic: Magic Prioritize Size and Perimeter Shooting
Official 2022 NBA Mock Draft 4.0 of the Orlando Magic: Magic Look to Improve League’s Worst Defense
Official 2022 NBA Mock Draft 5.0 of the Orlando Magic: Magic Look to Add Positional Versatility