Throughout the 2022 NBA Season, there wasn’t a better team than the Phoenix Suns. After finishing the 2021-2022 NBA regular-season with an NBA-best 64-18 record and claiming the No. 1 Playoff Seed in the Western Conference, Phoenix was expected to return to the NBA Finals after losing to Milwaukee last season. As a result of constructing one of the most well-rounded rosters in the NBA, Phoenix ranked inside the top five in Offensive Rating (114.8, Fourth in NBA), Defensive Rating (107.3, Third in NBA), and Net Rating (+7.5, First in NBA). Led by 17-year NBA Veteran Chris Paul (14.7 PPG and 10.8 APG), offensive superstar Devin Booker (26.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 4.8 APG), and rising star Deandre Ayton (17.2 PPG and 10.2 RPG), it seemed unlikely that there would be any team capable of defeating Phoenix in a seven-game playoff series.
Unfortunately for Phoenix, hindsight is always 20/20, and their seven-game series against Dallas is a great example. In spite of all of their regular-season success, Phoenix was eliminated by Dallas in dominant fashion, as shown by the 123-90 game-seven blowout loss. Here are just a few facts and statistics that put Phoenix’s 33-point loss into perspective:
- Phoenix’s Leading Scorer was Cameron Johnson, who notched twelve points.
- Paul and Booker combined for 21 points, three rebounds, and six assists, while Doncic had 35 points, ten rebounds, and four assists.
- As a team, Phoenix shot 37.9% from the field and 35.3% from three-point range, while Dallas shot 56.8% from the field and 48.7% from three-point range.
- Dallas’ Starting Lineup outscored Phoenix’s Starting Lineup 75-37.
- Doncic’s 27 first-half points (9/12, 75% shooting) tied that of Phoenix’s entire team (10-41, 24.3% shooting).
- Ayton only played 18 minutes and finished the game with five points and four rebounds.
The final fact listed regarding Ayton’s game seven performance may not seem significant, but has sparked a key issue that Phoenix needs to address this offseason. Simply put, Phoenix will need to decide if they will resign Ayton, a restricted free agent, to a contract extension this offseason. At first glance, resigning Ayton shouldn’t be much of an issue, but the Suns’ financial issues and their relationship with him have caused major uncertainty regarding Ayton’s future in Phoenix.
Current Financial Outlook for the Phoenix Suns Entering the 2022 Offseason
As a result of building a roster centered around great players, the Suns have very little financial flexibility this offseason. According to ESPN Insider Bobby Marks, Phoenix already has $128.8 million committed in salary, and is projected to be about $20 million below the tax entering the offseason. If Phoenix resigns Ayton and fellow Center JaVale McGee, along with using their midlevel exception, then Phoenix would project to have a $77 million tax bill, which would be the most in the NBA. It’s also worth noting that this tax bill would increase by a substantial amount after Phoenix signs Booker to a well-deserved contract extension, which will come into effect in the 2024 season. If Phoenix decides to extend Booker and Ayton while Paul and Bridges are still under contract, the Suns will have very little spending room for the upcoming free agency periods.
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PLAYERS
|
POS.
|
AGE
|
2022-23
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2023-24
|
2024-25
|
2025-26
|
2026-27
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | SG | 26 | $33,833,400 | $36,016,200 | UFA | – | – |
| Chris Paul | PG | 37 | $28,400,000 | $30,800,000 | $30,000,000 | UFA | – |
| Mikal Bridges | SF | 26 | $21,000,000 | $21,700,000 | $23,300,000 | $24,900,000 | UFA |
| Jae Crowder | SF | 32 | $10,183,800 | UFA | – | – | – |
| Landry Shamet | PG | 25 | $9,500,000 | $10,250,000 | $11,000,000 | $11,750,000 | UFA |
| Dario Saric | PF | 28 | $9,240,000 | UFA | – | – | – |
| Cameron Payne | PG | 28 | $6,000,000 | $6,500,000 | UFA | – | – |
| Cameron Johnson | SF | 26 | $5,887,899 | RFA | – | – | – |
| Torrey Craig | SF | 32 | $5,121,951 | UFA | – | – |
If Phoenix is looking to shed some salary cap to make room for Booker’s and Ayton’s extensions this offseason, there are a few cap casualties that the Suns can part ways with. By trading Crowder, Saric, and Craig, Phoenix would approximately free up $24.5 million, and may be able to accumulate assets from other teams. In addition to this, the future of Chris Paul will dictate how much money Phoenix can spend in the coming years. While Paul was quite productive in his 17th career NBA season, the decline of Paul’s play was evident in both of Phoenix’s playoff series.
Chris Paul’s 2021-2022 Regular Season Stats: 65 Games, 14.7 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 10.8 APG, 1.9 SPG.
Chris Paul’s 2021-2022 Playoff Stats vs Pelicans: Six games, 22.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 11.3 APG, 1.8 SPG, 1.5 TPG, 2.5 FPG.
Chris Paul’s 2021-2022 Playoff Stats vs Mavericks: Seven games, 13.4 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 5.7 APG, 1.1 SPG, 3.1 TPG, 3.6 FPG.
While Paul arguably played better in Phoenix’s first-round series against New Orleans than in the regular season, he was stopped cold against Dallas. As the Suns’ most experienced and accomplished player, it was certainly disappointing to see Paul perform as poorly as he did. While Paul didn’t play well, Phoenix is also at fault for giving Paul a four-year, $120 million contract extension after last season’s run to the NBA Finals. If Phoenix let Paul opt into his $44.2 million player option, or just enter unrestricted free agency, then the Suns would have approximately $30 million available salary cap. Whether Paul retires this offseason, decides to request a trade, or runs it back with the Suns next season, Paul’s current contract status is a major roadblock in Ayton’s contract status.
What it Would Cost Phoenix to Resign Deandre Ayton this Offseason
If Phoenix decides to keep Ayton, then they can offer him a max-contract extension. According to ESPN Insider Bobby Marks, Phoenix can sign Ayton to a five-year, $177 million contract extension. The year-by-year breakdown of Ayton’s contract extension would be as follows:
- 2022-23 Season: $30.5 million
- 2023-24 Season: $32.9 million
- 2024-25 Season: $35.4 million
- 2025-26 Season: $37.8 million
- 2026-27 Season: $40.3 million
As previously mentioned, the financial situation regarding Ayton and the rest of the Suns’ roster is the only factor holding Phoenix back from resigning Ayton. If Phoenix cuts ties with the aforementioned veterans and makes space for Ayton, then it would make too much sense to resign Ayton. With Paul entering the twilight of his career and likely retiring within the next two seasons, Phoenix will have a young core of Booker, Ayton, and Bridges to build around with much more spending room. When Paul leaves Phoenix, they’ll need to add a high-level creator to play next to Booker to continue to contend in the Western Conference. Fortunately, there are some free-agent options for Phoenix, as Indiana’s Ricky Rubio, Houston’s Dennis Schroder, and Los Angeles’ D.J. Augustin are all unrestricted free agents this offseason. Phoenix would also be able to get any of these veteran guards on the roster with their $9 million mid-level exception.
Internal Drama between Deandre Ayton and the Phoenix Suns
Soon after Phoenix suffered their embarrassing defeat to Dallas, 2022 Coach of the Year Award Winner Monty Williams was asked about why he only allowed Ayton to play in 17 of the game’s 48 minutes. Williams’ response?
Reporter: (Ayton) played 17 minutes-
Williams: Yup.
Reporter: And so, he didn’t play most of the fourth quarter, is there any reason why? Is he hurt? Is-
Williams: It’s internal.
Williams’ response was quite surprising, as he’s typically more than happy to elaborate on issues, but was instead short and stern. It’s also worth noting that Ayton and Williams were getting into it on the bench after Ayton reportedly refused to enter the game after the Suns fell into a large deficit. From Williams’ comments to Ayton’s possible grievance with Williams has provided smoke for a potential fire between the two.
Why Orlando Should Target Deandre Ayton this Offseason
While the Orlando Magic have been trying to carry out their rebuild through the NBA Draft, a free-agent signing like Ayton would speed up the process. At just 23-years-old, Ayton would fit within Orlando’s timeline, as 14 of their 17 players are 25 years old or younger. Furthermore, Orlando is among a select few NBA teams that will have enough cap space to offer Ayton a respectable free-agency deal. If Ayton decides to sign with the Magic, then he would become the lead player in Orlando’s organization, alongside star Wendell Carter Jr. It is interesting to note that Orlando’s General Manager Jeff Weltman is willing to acquire star players that are in need of a contract. In 2019, Weltman and the Magic traded for former No. 1 pick Markelle Fultz from Philadelphia, and was immediately signed to a three-year, $50 million contract extension.