Is Miami’s Pace the Real Reason For Their Early Success?

Kyle Lowry has unsurprisingly been a great addition to the Miami Heat roster. As a player, Lowry has a history of being an overall great contributor wherever the team needs him. The same has been true this year. His play hasn’t been flashy, nor has he averaged a lot of points, but his overall contributions to the team have resulted in positives all around.

Most recently, everyone has been talking about pace. Miami was one of the slowest teams in the league last year, averaging about 97 possessions per game. In the first few games this year, that was upped to over 105. It’s all anyone has talked about in reference to the offense. But what has happened more recently, as the season has progressed?

Pace is notably down. If Lowry has provided so much pace, why are the Heat currently in the bottom half of the league in pace? Miami has actually started to pull back towards league average for pace as they have played more games. For this, there are a few reasons.

The Heat played the Celtics recently in a disparaging loss. Boston held Miami to only 78 points. As far as pace of play is concerned, you can only play the team in front of you. The Celtics chose to play slowly in this game. The Celtics knew that playing quickly would work towards the Heat’s favor so they slowed things downs, despite actually leading the league in pace going into that game. This naturally brought the average pace of play down. Other teams will try and control pace depending on the match-up.

Secondly, there is a notable difference between when Kyle Lowry is on the court versus when he is sitting. On the court the Heat race the ball ahead, they use their defensive prowess to force bad shots, rebound and push the ball forward. Off the court things severely slow down. Things in the second unit start to run at a slower, half-court pace. The Heat’s third and fourth most used lineups both feature Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler, players that play more slowly.

The thing about this variability though should not be a cause for concern, pace does not equal better. In fact, the Celtics lead the league in pace but were in the bottom ten in offense. It can be easy to look at possessions per game and think it’s an instant advantage; more possessions mean more shots, right?

Yes, technically it does, but we are far away removed from those simpler numbers. Teams should play with pace if it works for them, but the focus should always be on efficiency. For this, Miami’s offensive rating is 5th in the league. Offensive rebounding—3rd in the league, free-throw attempts—5th, points/possession—7th. The Heat are performing, despite not being a pace leader recently. 

That doesn’t mean to say that pace won’t change. They were playing at a high pace at the beginning of the season and it worked for them. Just because the team has the capability, it doesn’t mean they will always use it.

The Heat are in a rare place with their roster. They have the personnel to run separate offensive schemes. This can be used to their advantage. If a team wants to play slow, they have ways to find efficient shots in a slower, half-court offense. Conversely, if speed and pace are raised, then they have a quality point guard who can easily adjust the offense accordingly. This is something that only high IQ players are capable of. 

So yes, pace can be important, but not the be-all end of an offense. Keep an eye on how Spoelstra changes things up not only from game to game, but from line-up to line-up.

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