The Miami Dolphins project to have one of the brightest futures of any team in the NFL. Despite the underperforming of rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa, second-year head coach Brian Flores led the Dolphins to a 10-6 record, coming within one game of a postseason berth. To examine their draft, we must examine their team, strengths, weaknesses, and everything.
Defense
Miami finished 4th in Defense Dropback EPA/Play and 6th in Pass Defense DVOA, due in large part to the cornerback duo of Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. The three corners that played the highest percentage of their cover snaps in man coverage were all Dolphins’, showing that Flores is one of the biggest proponents of man coverage in the entire NFL. Nik Needham was not good enough as a slot corner last year, giving up 1.40 Yards per Cover Snap. So, Chris Grier decided to attack that in free agency, attempting to revive the career of the once highest paid nickel corner in the NFL, Justin Coleman, while also bringing Needham back.
The rush defense finished 22nd in DVOA and 23rd in EPA, so the Fins once again tried to make a reclamation, acquiring Benardrick McKinney, who once was an elite run defending linebacker. They hope for the continued breakouts of Andrew Van Ginkel and Christian Wilkins, along with Zach Sieler and Raekwon Davis. Emmanuel Ogbah provided great value as a pass rusher last season, with 66 pressures, but the Dolphins could still use depth help pretty much everywhere on defense except interior defensive line.
Offense
As for the Dolphins offense, their quarterback situation will define their season. It will likely take more than finishing 27th out of 34 QB’s in EPA/Play for Tua Tagovailoa to repeat his winning success of last year. Offensive coordinator Chan Gailey is gone, and Eric Studesville and George Godsey are the new playcallers. The Fins badly needed weapons for Tua, and they attacked that by signing the 2nd best available WR free agent, Will Fuller, to a one-year contract. Fuller finished 1st in DVOA and Yards per Target before his season ended with a six-game suspension for performance enhancing drugs. DeVante Parker simply didn’t cut it last year, declining in pretty much every stat imaginable from his breakout 2019. However, Mike Gesicki broke out in 2020 after being a poor receiving tight end in 2019. The Dolphins still need weapons, though, for Tagovailoa, and they also need to protect him.
The young offensive line ranked 27th in pass block win rate and 23rd in run block win rate, with 1st round pick Austin Jackson disappointing at left tackle. Robert Hunt showed some promise, but the line overall is pretty bad, especially after replacing Ted Karras with Matt Skura.
In addition to offensive line help, Miami can use some depth at the running back position. Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed were decent last year, but the Fins can use an upgrade.
So, who will the Miami Dolphins draft? After all, Miami has eight draft picks, including two in the first round.
1.6: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
Penei Sewell, 20, is arguably the best tackle prospect in over 20 years. Sewell is 6’6” and 331 pounds with incredible power and speed. He posted a 95.8 PFF Grade in his age 18-19 season in 2019 at Oregon, allowing just five pressures and zero sacks while protecting Justin Herbert. The selection of Sewell doesn’t automatically fix the offensive line, but the line improves immensely with his presence.
TRADE WITH CHI
SEND: 1.18, 2.50
ACQUIRE: 1.20, 2.52, 2022 R4, 2022 R5, 2022 R6
The Dolphins hold pick No. 18, and if Mac Jones is somehow still on the board, Chicago will likely decide to jump Washington. As a result, the Fins would pick up draft capital, and because they’re eyeing two different guys at No. 20, don’t have much of a risk.
1.20: Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
Rashod Bateman provides a perfect weapon for Tua Tagovailoa. While he may lack in breakaway speed, he’s incredibly refined as a separator, and his releases and route running are near the very top of this class.
Bateman wins inside and outside, against press and off, man and zone, and pretty much everything else. Bateman’s also a fantastic tackle breaker after the catch, and he broke out young, as well as having a very high dominator rating at Minnesota. Providing Tua with an elite separator will likely help his development.
2.36: Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina
45% of the time that North Carolina running back Javonte Williams got a carry, it resulted in either a first down, or a touchdown. He broke 76 tackles on just 157 attempts in 2020, had a PFF Grade above 90 in both gap scheme runs and zone scheme runs, and put up 4.58 Yards AFTER CONTACT per attempt. For reference, the Dolphins team had 4.3 yards per attempt last year. Williams had more than that just after contact. Obviously the offensive line is a major part of running back production, but PFF’s Elusive Rating, which measures an RB’s production isolated from OL play, graded Williams the highest ever for a college player. He’s a capable receiver, but the value here comes with his rushing, and getting a true RB1 for this team is badly needed.
TRADE WITH CAR:
SEND: 2.52, 2022 R3
ACQUIRE: 2.39, 2022 R7
Seeing the board, the Dolphins want to address inside linebacker, and they will likely see two on the board, but neither will likely fall to No. 52, so a (mock) trade was made with Carolina to move up 13 spots to No. 39.
2.39: Jamin Davis, ILB, Kentucky
Jamin Davis is a big inside linebacker, 6’4″, 234 pounds, and he’s got speed to match. He has a fantastic tackle radius and shoots gaps in the run game very well. He provides instant impact in the run game for the Dolphins, and his frame and athleticism provide a very high ceiling both in coverage and as a pass rusher, two areas of his game that need development.
3.81: Tyree Gillespie, S, Missouri
After No. 39, the Dolphins don’t pick until No. 81. And at No. 81, Miami selects Missouri’s Tyree Gillespie, who is likely the second best safety on the board. While many profile him as a box safety, he has enough range to drop back into deep coverage. He’s a physical player that plays strong in the run game as well as having a great profile in zone and man coverage. When Gillespie covered the 6’6″ menace Kyle Pitts, he allowed just one catch for 8 yards, guarding him for half of the game. Yes, the Bama offense absolutely shredded Mizzou, but Gillespie had a pass breakup on Devonta Smith, an open field tackle on Jaylen Waddle, and two goal line stops on Najee Harris on the same drive.
His size and speed allows him to play every role that he’s asked, and he’s got great instincts. If drafted, Gillespie can immediately play a rotational role with Bobby McCain and Eric Rowe in the Dolphins secondary.
5.156: Joshua Kaindoh, EDGE, Florida State
Kaindoh stands at 6’7″ and weighs 265 pounds with great bend and a very strong lower body. He projects with upside, but in Round 5, he’s anything but a sure thing. He’s dealt with injuries in his time at FSU, he isn’t very fast and not a strong run defender, but at his size, he’s got time to develop his game. He’s a good bull rusher and has a few solid pass rush moves, and is definitely worth the investment in Round 5 with his upside.
7.231: Robert Jones, IOL, Middle Tennessee
Jones played tackle at Middle Tennessee, but he’s a better fit at guard in the NFL. The versatility that he can provide is very valuable for a depth piece on the offensive line. The Dolphins started Hunt, Jackson, Flowers, Kindley, and Karras last year on the line, so if Jones does find a way to get reps, it wouldn’t be shocking. He’s a very aggressive run blocker, and his legs are massive, but he probably won’t win very many 1v1’s in the pass game in the NFL. Still, getting a player with a trait like Jones’ run blocking upside in Round 7 is very impressive.
7.254: Shemar Jean-Charles, CB, Appalachian State
While he’s only 5’11”, 190 pounds, Shemar Jean-Charles is violent at the catch point. He had 25 pass breakups on 119 targets over the last two seasons, and his overall numbers are spectacular. Many of his targets were off target passes though, inflating his overall stats, however, he still reads QB’s very well and has fluid hips. His game sense and aggression make him the best player available at No. 254. Even though Miami doesn’t really need a cornerback at all, they should take the best player available, and that’s Shemar Jean-Charles.
Conclusion
The Dolphins get an infusion of young talent into a young and talented team. Tua Tagovailoa now has weapons and protection, and the defense gets a jolt as well. This season’s goal is to go to the playoffs, and with this draft, Brian Flores should be able to take them there.