ORLANDO, FLA- After finishing the 2021-2022 NBA Season with a 22-60 record, the Orlando Magic will begin their preparations for the offseason, starting with the 2022 NBA Draft Lottery. Courtesy of having the second-worst record in the NBA, Orlando is tied with Houston (20-62) and Detroit (23-59) with the best odds (14%) to land the No. 1 overall pick. In addition to this, Orlando also has a 13.4% chance for the No. 2 pick, and a 12.7% chance for the No. 3 pick, according to Tankathon. Despite these odds, the draft lottery could certainly backfire on the Magic, as they may fall down to the No. 5 (27.8%) or No. 6 (20.0%) pick. Similar to last season, the Magic finished with the best odds for the No. 1 overall pick, but fell to the No. 5 overall pick, where they selected Gonzaga’s Jalen Suggs.
Current Odds for Every Team Picking in the NBA Lottery
Of all 30 NBA teams, just 14 teams have at least a 0.7% chance to land the No. 1 overall pick. With this being said, there seem to be six teams that will likely end up with the No. 1 overall pick. In addition to Orlando, Houston and Detroit each have a 14% chance to land the No. 1 overall pick, while Oklahoma City (12.5%), Indiana (10.5%), and Portland (9.0%) also have solid odds. Here are the updated percentages for all of the fourteen teams picking in the NBA Lottery. The final column is just the average position that each team is slated to pick at, based on their shown percentages.
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Houston
|
14.0% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 47.9% | 3.7 | |||||||||
|
Orlando
|
14.0% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 27.8% | 20.0% | 3.9 | ||||||||
|
Detroit
|
14.0% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 14.8% | 26.0% | 7.0% | 4.1 | |||||||
|
Oklahoma City
|
12.5% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 7.2% | 25.7% | 16.7% | 2.2% | 4.4 | ||||||
|
Indiana
|
10.5% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 2.2% | 19.6% | 26.7% | 8.7% | 0.6% | 5.0 | |||||
|
Portland
|
9.0% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 29.8% | 20.5% | 3.7% | 0.1% | 5.5 | |||||
|
Sacramento
|
7.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 19.7% | 34.1% | 12.9% | 1.3% | >0.0% | 6.2 | |||||
|
LA Lakers
|
6.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 34.5% | 32.1% | 6.7% | 0.4% | >0.0% | 7.0 | |||||
|
San Antonio
|
4.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 50.7% | 25.9% | 3.0% | 0.1% | >0.0% | 8.0 | |||||
|
Washington
|
3.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 65.9% | 19.0% | 1.2% | >0.0% | >0.0% | 9.2 | |||||
|
New York
|
2.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 77.6% | 12.6% | 0.4% | >0.0% | 10.3 | ||||||
|
LA Clippers
|
1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 86.1% | 6.7% | 0.1% | 11.4 | |||||||
|
Charlotte
|
1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 92.9% | 2.3% | 12.5 | ||||||||
|
Cleveland
|
0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 97.6% | 13.7 |
Official Ranking of Top Fifteen NBA Prospects
While securing a top-three pick in any NBA Draft is imperative, it may be even more important this season for teams like the Magic. As it currently stands, Duke’s Paolo Banchero, Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren, and Auburn’s Jabari Smith are the three players that are in the conversation as the first player off the board, and will likely make up the first three picks in any order. With this being said, there is a noticeable drop-off in production or fit within the next level of prospects, so dropping outside of the top-three for Orlando would be damaging to their rebuild. For now, here is a rough draft of the top fifteen NBA Draft Prospects, who figure to hear their name called in the draft lottery:
1. Paolo Banchero, PF/C, University of Duke
2. Chet Holmgren, PF/C, University of Gonzaga
3. Jaden Ivey, PG/SG, University of Purdue
4. Jabari Smith, SF/PF, University of Auburn
5. Shaedon Sharpe, PG/SG, University of Kentucky
6. Keegan Murray, PF/C, University of Iowa
7. A.J. Griffin, SG/SF, University of Duke
8. Ochai Agbaji, PG/SG, University of Kansas
9. Johnny Davis, PG/SG, University of Wisconsin
10. TyTy Washington, PG/SG, University of Kentucky
11. Bennedict Mathurin, PG/SG, University of Arizona
12. Jeremy Sochan, SF/PF, University of Baylor
13. Jalen Duren, PF/C, University of Memphis
14. Tari Eason, SF/PF, University of LSU
15. Mark Williams, PF/C, University of Duke
An extended analysis can be found for some of the 2022 Draft Prospects in either Mock Drafts for the Orlando Magic. The Magic are set to pick No. 2 in both mock drafts, which were based on the regular-season standings.
Mock Draft 1.0: Post March Madness (April 3rd, 2022)
Mock Draft 2.0: Magic Build Around Wendell Carter Jr. (April 30th, 2022)
Key Upcoming Dates for the Orlando Magic this Offseason
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In addition to the NBA Draft Lottery occurring on May 17th, there are plenty of other crucial dates for the Magic in the 2022 offseason. From the Draft Combine to the Summer League, here are all of the important dates to know as the 2022 NBA offseason begins to commence.
May 16-22: Pre-Draft NBA Combine in Chicago, Illinois
May 17: NBA Draft Lottery in Chicago, Illinois
June 13: Draft Early Entry Withdrawal Deadline (5 P.M. ET)
June 23: 2022 NBA Draft in Brooklyn, New York
July 1: Start of 2022 NBA Free Agency (5 P.M. CT)
July 7-17: NBA Summer League in Las Vegas, Nevada