Tyler Herro is having himself a season thus far. It’s clear he wants the respect of top-tier talent but it’s even clearer he’s ready to earn it.
Herro over-performed expectations in the 2020 bubble but suffered a sophomore slump the following year. During the said “slump”, he still averaged 15 points and five rebounds, improvements from his rookie season. That’s not bad at all for any NBA player under the age of 22.
This year has been different, however. Herro knows his strengths and is playing to them. It’s clear he’s been given the green light on offense. Herro launches shots with ease. He shoots well coming off of screens, in isolation, and spotting up. He attempts about 19 shots a game, up six from last year despite playing the same number of minutes.
Remarkably, Herro still comes off the bench. Which, in reality, works towards his benefit. Herro enters the game as instant offense. Currently, Miami is leading the league in defensive points per possession. They’re second in the league in defensive effective field goal percentage which means this is a defense first team. Therefore, if a player is given the go-ahead to the offense, they must truly be special.
Herro’s value lies in his ability to create shots. His teammate, Duncan Robinson, is starting over him because he finds more shots within the system of the offense. Herro finds them himself. He is especially dangerous in the mid-range, where he takes a majority of his shots, and shoots nearly 50%. This is actually following a nuanced league trend of valuing mid-range again. Everyone is defending the rim and threes more intently leaving a mid-range sniper like Herro with room to operate.
This is beneficial for Herro, because from downtown, he is suffering. In previous seasons, Herro was right at league average or above. However, this year through four games, Herro is only shooting 31% on seven attempts a game. That will improve as the season continues but even if it doesn’t, he’s shown he doesn’t need it.
Herro doesn’t fit a specified role in the offense because he truly is a combo guard. He can run second unit offense or be a pure scorer, finishing games. In fact, his lack of a role is a role in itself. A historic player that also fits that description is Manu Ginobli.
In the eye test, they don’t play particularly similarly. Ginobili made his living attacking the basket, while Herro’s known more for his shooting. But if you look at their shot charts (per cleaningtheglass.com), it’s actually very close. Especially once Manu entered the middle of his career around 2007.
Ginobili’s 2006-2007 Season
Herro’s Last 750 Shots
Ginobili had a long, successful career and notably only started about 33% of his games. This doesn’t mean that Herro can’t be a starter in this league. But it does mean he has real potential in his current role. Herro should be watching film from players like Ginobili, Lou Williams, and Jamal Crawford religiously.
This all culminates the main point. Herro has real potential for the 6th Man of the Year award. He has real talent and is finding his niche on an extremely talented Miami Heat team. It’s a very small sample size but this could very well be a great year for the young Tyler Herro.