When the 2021 NBA free agency period begins, the Miami Heat will be facing some important roster decisions. Most importantly regarding their two restricted free agents: Kendrick Nunn and Duncan Robinson.
Both players are due for huge paydays. Despite the Heat retaining Bird Rights on the pair, the likelihood that both are brought back is slim. In fact, if the offer sheets reach too exorbitant an amount, neither player may be returning to Miami.
Could that be a mistake in a disappointing free-agent class? And which of the Heat’s restricted free agents are more important to the performance and the future of the team?
Kendrick Nunn and the Uncertainty at Guard
Nunn was an undeniable bright spot in the Heat’s 2020-21 season. He averaged 14.6 PPG while improving his FG%, FT% and 3PT% from his rookie year. The 25-year-old combo guard has proven since joining the Heat that he is capable of scoring. His ability to get to the basket has been integral in drawing defenders and creating separation for his teammates. But it is likely Nunn’s outside shooting that has benefitted the Heat the most during his tenure.
While Jimmy Butler has proven himself to be a star since joining the Heat, his lack of a consistent three-point shot forces the Heat’s hand. They end up having to compensate for Butler’s lack of range elsewhere in the lineup. That is where Nunn comes in. Last season, Nunn’s 122 3PM were good for second on the team behind Duncan Robinson. More impressively, he recorded 15 games with 4-or-more three-pointers.
We have established that Nunn is a valuable part of the Heat offense. And, with the team likely to decline his $19.4m team option, as well as his $15m team option, there could possibly be a huge hole in the guard rotation in Miami alongside Tyler Herro. So what could make the Heat balk at matching a substantial offer to Nunn?
The price tag, perhaps.
There are already a handful of playmaker-starved teams linked to Nunn. The Knicks are the most common team being brought up as a landing spot. As a result, there is a possibility that he receives an offer sheet in the range of $15m-$17m per season. At that price, the Heat would be hard-pressed to match and still allow themselves the freedom to upgrade their roster as they’d please. Actually, at that price, it could even make more sense for the team to renegotiate with Dragic and injured guard Victor Oladipo. As much as Nunn has impressed in Miami, he hasn’t warranted that high of a price tag.
Miami’s other restricted free agent might have though.
Duncan Robinson and the Value of Versatility
After going undrafted in the 2018 NBA Draft and playing just 15 games (161 minutes) as a rookie, Robinson has started 140 games the past two seasons for Miami.
The increase in Robinson’s playing time is directly correlated to improvements in nearly every aspect of his skillset. When he came into the league after one season at Division III Williams College and three seasons at Michigan, Robinson was a shooter.
In that area, the 27-year-old wingman hasn’t disappointed at all. In fact, he has recorded back-to-back 250+ 3PM seasons and ranked in the top 4 in the NBA in that category in both of those years.
However, as Robinson’s shot has stayed consistent, his overall game has blossomed more than perhaps even Miami expected.
His man-to-man defense has improved. He displays better foot speed when staying in front of his matchups now; while his understanding of defensive spacing speaks to a newfound comfort on that side of the ball. Additionally, Robinson is no longer afraid to attack the basket off the dribble. Now, when defenders over-commit on the close out, he shows a previously-unseen willingness to take it to the rim. Perhaps the most important addition to Robinson’s game, however, is his positional versatility.
Robinson played 75% of his minutes at the shooting guard position as a second-year player, but spent 55% of his court time in 2020-21 playing at the forward positions. This included a career-high 21% of his minutes spent at power forward. With the NBA’s continuing trend of small ball and positionless basketball, Robinson’s ability to glide fluidly through the lineup is extremely valuable.
The Miami Heat will have to be creative with both their spending and lineup creations next season. This means that Robinson’s ability to play multiple positions could push the Heat into matching offers they would have once considered ludicrous. The fact Robinson plays so well alongside Butler and Adebayo only increases the necessity of retaining him. Without a similarly-priced stretch big on the market, Miami would be foolish to let Robinson walk.
The Most Likely Scenario
- The Heat match the offer sheet that signs.
- The Heat do not match the offer sheet that signs.
I’m sure the Miami Heat would love to hold onto Kendrick Nunn. Doing so would continue the feel-good success story the two parties have created and shared. But realistically, an offer sheet to Nunn in the early portion of free agency could handcuff the team. After getting swept by the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round, it makes sense that the Heat are looking to improve their roster. But by committing to Nunn AND Robinson at market value, the Heat could find themselves hard-capped without adding to the roster.
The belief around the league is that the Heat view Robinson as a bigger piece of their future. If Nunn receives the offers he is expected to, the Heat would likely be limiting their future rather than building upon it.
Where Does This Leave the Heat?
It all depends on the timeline of the offer sheets that Robinson and Nunn receive. If the Heat are forced to make decisions too early, it could impact what players they have a chance of signing. Many of the biggest names may be unlikely to agree to a deal too early into free agency without hearing offers. Regardless, the Heat will likely set their sights on one of the few big name guards available this offseason and strike as quickly as possible.
Tim Hardaway Jr. could work within the Heat’s salary cap constraints with a little bit of creativity. But even he could be priced out of the Heat’s budget in a bidding war. Spencer Dinwiddie or Devonte Graham could be potential lower-level, shorter-contract targets. Even a team-friendly deal to bring back Dragic and/or Oladipo could help lessen the impact of Nunn’s potential departure.
It is difficult to respond to the question posed in the article’s title with a simple response.
Duncan Robinson is almost certainly the free agent most integral to the Heat’s performance. But Miami’s handling of Kendrick Nunn could be the most important decision they make in regards to their team’s core and future.