The Jacksonville Jaguars are back in the playoffs for the first time since the 2022 season. The Jaguars finished first in the AFC South and third in the AFC with a 13-4 record, and will take on the Buffalo Bills in the NFL Wild Card playoff round Sunday at 1:00 p.m.
Hats off to first-year head coach Liam Coen, who turned around the Jaguars program in just one year, going from 4-13 to 13-4. Jacksonville finished the season on an eight-game winning streak and has outscored opponents by 153 points since week 11.
The Jags will play the Bills, who are trying to shake off their own playoff demons. The Bills, who have Super Bowl aspirations, have reached the AFC Championship game twice since 2020, most recently losing to Kansas City last season. With Josh Allen at quarterback, the Bills are 0-4 on the road in the playoffs.
This version of the Bills is starting to resemble the Jim Kelly-era Bills, who were in the Super Bowl four consecutive seasons and came away losers each time. Buffalo is favored by 1.5 points in this wildcard matchup with the Jaguars.
So, what does Jacksonville need to do to get a win on Sunday Afternoon? Everyone talks about Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars’ passing game, and it is prolific. Lawrence set new personal highs this season with 4,007 yards passing and 38 touchdowns. Lawrence also led the Jaguars to a season high of 27.9 points per game.
Parker Washington, Brian Thomas Jr, and Jakobi Myers are the primary targets for Lawrence. Tight end Brenton Strange is the receiver who serves as Lawrence’s security blanket. But the key to a Jaguars win may be to pound the ball with the running game against the porous Buffalo run defense.
Opponents have run the ball 47% of the time against the Buffalo defense, and there are a few reasons for that. The Bills’ run defense is the worst in the league, allowing 136 yards per game on the ground. The Bills are also giving up 5.1 yards per carry on the ground, which ranks second-worst in the league.
The Jaguars are indeed a past-first, run-second type of offense. But Jacksonville does have some runners capable of exploiting the Bills’ run defense. Travis Etienne Jr. gained 1107 yards this season while scoring seven touchdowns. Etienne is a shifty back who forced 45 missed tackles this season and has 10 runs of 26 yards or more. He is not in the league of Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, or Bijan Robinson, but he did have 22 explosive runs this season and can break one at any time.
The other thing the Jaguars must do to secure a win is slow down Josh Allen’s passing game. The Jaguars have allowed 270-plus yards passing to eight different quarterbacks this season, and if the Jags allow Allen to go crazy in the pass game, it will be a long afternoon for the Jaguars.
The last time these two teams met was in a wildcard game in 2017, which the Jaguars won. The Jaguars are 2-0 against the Bills in playoff competition, and have never lost a wildcard game at home.
The Jaguars cannot just focus solely on Josh Allen and the passing game. The Bills’ running game, led by NFL-leading rusher James Cook, has been lethal at times this season. This matchup will be a fascinating one to watch. The Jags’ run defense has been solid, giving up just 85.6 yards per game on the ground.
The Jags are 8-8 all-time in playoff games and are undefeated in wild-card games at home.
ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith has the Jaguars winning the Super Bowl, defeating the Los Angeles Rams.
Author’s Prediction
There is still a lot of football to be played before the big game in February, but I’ll take the up-and-coming Jaguars to pull an upset and take out the Bills at home on Sunday afternoon, 27-24.