The quest for a sixth consecutive playoff berth and a fifth straight NFC South championship begins on Sunday when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head north for a division matchup with the Atlanta Falcons.
The Falcons swept the Buccaneers last season, winning 36-30 in OT in Atlanta, then two weeks later in Tampa, 31-26.
With New Orleans and Carolina in rebuilding mode, most people think the Falcons and Buccaneers will finish the season one and two in the division, respectively.
Todd Bowles is trying not to put too much emphasis on this division matchup. “It’s one ballgame. A win would give us a leg up in the division. It’s not going to win the Super Bowl, which is what we want to get to. It’s great to get off to a good start, and that’s all it brings to us.”
These NFC South Division rivalries have played some close games in their history, with the Falcons holding a 32-31 advantage.
4.5 points have decided the last four games in this series.
Last season, in the Falcons’ wins, Kirk Cousins torched the Bucs’ secondary for 742 yards in the two games last year.
Those two games prompted the Buccaneers to draft Jacob Parrish and Benjamin Morrison to bolster the secondary.
They also signed Haason Reddick to a one-year contract to put more pressure on the opposing quarterback.
Second-year pro Michael Penix will start just his fourth NFL game on Sunday. He is a left-handed quarterback, and the Bucs have struggled against left-handed quarterbacks, winning just three times against lefties in their 50-year history.
Bowles is excited to unleash his defense on the Falcons on Sunday afternoon. “I’m just excited to see how the defense comes together. The first game brings a lot of the unknown, for us as well as them. We’ve just got to play together, they’ve got to talk to each other, they have to have mental toughness. We’re going into a hostile environment; it’s a great place to play. It’s a great place to open a season of football. We’re just excited to play.”
Last season, the Falcons’ offense was ranked 6th, but their defense was ranked 23rd.
The Falcons also struggled to pressure the opposing quarterback, who had the second-fewest sacks overall.
The Falcons addressed that need in the off-season by signing Edge rusher Leonard Floyd in free agency, and then drafting Jalon Walker and James Pierce.
There are injury concerns for both teams.
Tristan Wirfs, Chris Godwin, Christian Izien, and Benjamin Morrison are all out for the Bucs.
Safety DeMarco Hellams and tackle Jack Nelson are out for Atlanta.
Coming off the two best seasons of his career, Baker Mayfield talked about the losses to the Falcons last season.
“Obviously, Atlanta got us twice, but nothing carries over, whether it was their wins against them or how good we were on offense. None of that matters. It’s a clean slate for everybody, so we’re looking forward to opening up on the road with a divisional opponent. That’s really all that matters, is how we find a way to win.”
Keys to victory:
Pressure Michael Penix: The Bucs were sixth in the NFL with 46 sacks last season. They will count on newcomer Haason Reddick and second-year pro YaYa Diaby to apply that pressure from the outside. Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey should apply that pressure inside.
Contain Drake London: The Falcons move London all over the offense, so it’s important to ensure someone is always covering London. Most of the time, London will be matched up against Zyon McCollum. The Bucs defense needs to get off the field on third down. Their inability to do so contributed to their loss to Washington in the playoffs last season.
Get pressure on Jayden Daniels. His will be an underlying theme for the defense this season. The Buccaneers spent a lot of money to upgrade the pass rush, and starting tomorrow against the Falcons, the Bucs need to see a return on that investment.
The Buccaneers have proven that they can score with anybody, but the defense will need to have a good game to earn the win.
The Buccaneers are 1.5-point favorites on the road. Look for the Bucs to win in a shootout 37-30.