The speculation of the collapse of the ACC has been rampant in the world of college sports and football specifically. The home conference of some of the sport’s greatest teams like the Clemson Tigers of the late 2010s, the Florida State Seminoles of the 1990s and not to mention the decades of basketball dominance between Duke, UNC, NC State, and most recently Virginia.
A collapse of this conference would make seismic concessions in the CFB landscape, but what would it mean for the couplet of Florida teams in the conference, the Miami Hurricanes and the Florida State Seminoles?
The Others
First things first, we should go over what I think happens to the rest of the ACC if it does implode.
Clemson -> SEC
Georgia Tech -> SEC
Louisville -> Big 12
Pittsburgh -> Big 10
Syracuse -> Big 10
Wake Forest -> Big 12
I believe that Boston College, Duke, UNC, NC State, Virginia, and Virginia Tech stay in the conference and pick up a group of new teams that could include schools like Liberty, James Madison, Tulane, Memphis, USF, UMass, UConn, and Marshall, just to name a few candidates to rebuild the conference.
Florida State -> Big 12
Florida State is a problem that the SEC doesn’t want. The Seminoles caused a huge stir with their controversial playoff exclusion last year and haven’t really calmed down since. They have been trying to force their way out of the ACC for a long time and join the SEC.
The SEC would be even better with the Noles in the conference in the long term, but not only is the team not prepared for the SEC in terms of off field antics, they are even worse prepared in terms of on field play. Florida State has been unwatchable this season and that doesn’t bode well for an SEC bid.
For a recent example, let’s look at Oklahoma last year. They were 3rd in the Big 12 with a 10-2 regular season record, only falling short of Texas, an 11-1 playoff team, and Oklahoma State, who was carried kicking and screaming to a Big 12 championship game by Ollie Gordon III. In all, Oklahoma was a good team and a respectable program. They defect to the SEC, lose their starter to the transfer portal, and stink it right up. The Sooners are currently 4-3 with a loss to unranked South Carolina and their playoff hopes gone.
How can a 1-6 ACC team with no QB of the future expect to even come close to competing at what has been proven as the next level? I think they should season the Big 12 for a few seasons minimum before they make a serious SEC push.
Miami -> SEC
The Hurricanes are as ready for the SEC as they’ll ever be. They have an amazing team, bound for not only the ACC championship but also the new 12-team playoff. This brings them into the SEC conversation with a significant case for expansion. Their QB room is very good this year and has potential to be similarly as good in the near future.
The big mistake the Sooners made when moving to the SEC was not solidifying their QB room. A huge part of their success in 2023 came from their signal caller Dillon Gabriel. Instead of replacing his production with a proven option with some experience, they chose to move forward with Jackson Arnold – a decision that has backfired for them horribly.
The Hurricanes have a backup named Emory Williams, waiting in the wings for Cam Ward to move on the NFL. They could move forward if they trust his talents, but the more likely option is to pick up a transfer QB like they did a season ago with Ward. A few targets that could be available would be former UNLV QB Matthew Sluka, Washington State fireballer John Mateer, or SJSU signal caller Emmett Brown. All of these players have succeeded at lesser schools, but have potential to improve their game at the next level just like Ward.
The legacy of Miami football leads this to be a match made in heaven. The fact that Miami has never been in the SEC is a great injustice and it’s now time to correct that. The Hurricanes can probably expect a step back in 2025 if they do make this jump. While this is the case, I think they would be stupid to not take the opportunity in front of them. If they don’t receive an SEC invite, or don’t accept it, they would be smart to join the Big 12. They would dominate and be right back in this same position in a few seasons if they do.