ORLANDO, FLA- As surprising as it may seem, the Orlando Magic (24-35, 13th in East) are undoubtedly one of the most improved teams in the NBA. With the sensational early-career dominance of Paolo Banchero and the much-improved play of Wendell Carter Jr, Franz Wagner, Bol Bol, and Cole Anthony, the Magic have been much more competitive than expected. As of February 22nd, Orlando is 24-35 and 13th in the Eastern Conference, and have already eclipsed their win total from the 2021-2022 season (22-60, 14th in East). This improvement can be attributed to a number of things, but Orlando’s balance of young and developing players combined with seasoned veterans has made the Magic better than expected. With the conclusion of the 2023 All-Star Game festivities in Salt Lake City, Utah, five key storylines regarding the Magic are worth noting for the remainder of the 2022-2023 season.
1. Orlando’s Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner Shine in 2023 Rising Stars Tournament
Although the Magic didn’t have any players selected for the 2023 All-Star Game, Orlando had multiple players participate in the All-Star weekend festivities in Salt Lake City, Utah. First and foremost, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner were both nominated to the 2023 Rising Stars Tournament, and were the first two selections of the 21-player pool consisting of rookie and sophomore players. The fourth team consisted of G-League standouts, headlined by top draft prospect Scoot Henderson.
On February 17th, the four teams competed in a three-game tournament, with each game featuring the Elam Ending, or a final target score, rather than the customary time clock. The two semifinal games were played to a Final Target Score of 40, while the championship game was played to a Final Target Score of 25. In playing for Team Pau Gasol and Team Deron Williams, respectively, Banchero and Wagner played pivotal roles in their team’s success.
As it turned out, Banchero outshined Wagner in the first game of the three-game tournament, in which Team Gasol defeated Team Deron handily 40-25. In eleven minutes, Banchero recorded nine points, five rebounds, and one assist while shooting 4-6 (66.7%) from the field and 1-2 (50.0%) from three-point range, earning a team-best Plus/Minus of +15. Meanwhile, Wagner failed to score a single point, missing all three of his field goal and three-point attempts en route to a -10 Plus/Minus.
After Team Joakim edged out Team Jason 40-32 in the second game, the championship game was set between Team Gasol and Team Joakim. Courtesy of a heroic MVP-level performance and game-winning shot by New Orleans’ Jose Alvarado, Team Gasol beat Team Joakim 25-20, as Banchero took a secondary role in the win. In seven minutes, Banchero notched four points and one rebound on 1-3 (33.3%) shooting from the field and 0-2 (0.0%) from three-point range.
In spite of Banchero’s lack of scoring in the championship game, the 2022 No. 1 pick made multiple crucial defensive plays that helped seal the win over Team Joakim. First and foremost, Banchero managed to block Jalen Williams’ ferocious dunk attempt, which later led to a dunk by Scottie Barnes on the other end of the floor, giving Team Pau an early 6-4 lead. Earlier in the game, Banchero intercepted Josh Giddey’s intended lob pass for Jeremy Sochan, and threw a full-court pass to Bennedict Mathurin, who was fouled by Jabari Smith. Although Mathurin missed both free throws, Banchero played quite well in both games of the Rising Stars Tournament, as shown by Team Pau’s championship win.
2. Will Orlando Make a Push for Play-In Tournament or Improve Draft Lottery Odds?
As of February 22nd, the Magic, at 24-35, has a 10.5% chance of landing the No. 1 pick, and a 42.1% chance of landing a top-four pick, according to Tankathon. With Orlando’s recent win streak and competitive play, however, Orlando may slide to the bottom of the lottery. For reference, Orlando is just four games worse than Washington, who is the No. 10 seed and the last team to participate in the Play-In Tournament. If the Magic make a late-season push for the Play-In Tournament and finish as the No. 10 seed, their odds of the No. 1 pick would drop to just 4.5%, and would only have a 20.3% chance of securing a top-four pick.
It’s worth noting that Orlando will receive Chicago’s 2023 first-round pick, as long as it doesn’t convey into a top-four pick. At 26-31, Chicago’s pick has a 6.0% chance of becoming the No. 1 pick, and a 26.3% chance of landing in the top four. With two mid-to-late lottery selections, the Magic could package both picks in hopes of moving up inside the top four while still competing for a spot in the Play-In Tournament.
With a top-four pick in the NBA draft, Orlando would be able to acquire one of France’s Victor Wembanyama, G-League Ignite’s Scoot Henderson, or the Overtime’s Amen and Ausar Thompson. Outside of that quartet, Alabama’s Brandon Miller, Houston’s Jarace Walker, Baylor’s Keyonte George, Villanova’s Cam Whitmore, and Kansas’ Gradey Dick are all talented prospects that will likely be available with picks later in the lottery.
3. With an abundance of Salary Cap Space, Who will Orlando Target in 2023 Free Agency?
As stated by Sportrac, Orlando is projected to have $21.8 million in salary cap space for the 2023 offseason, and may be one of just eight teams to have positive cap space. In addition to Orlando, Houston ($56.2 million), Utah ($53.8 million), San Antonio ($46.0 million), Oklahoma City ($30.4 million), Detroit ($27.9 million), Indiana ($26.6 million), and Sacramento ($21.5 million) are also slated to have significant funds to acquire players this offseason.
With a very young and promising core headlined by Banchero, Wagner, Markelle Fultz, Wendell Carter Jr, Cole Anthony, and Bol Bol, the Magic may appear as an attractive free-agent destination to some of the 2023 free agents. While the Magic aren’t expected to pursue Philadelphia’s James Harden (PO), Dallas’ Kyrie Irving (UFA), or Milwaukee’s Khris Middleton (UFA), Orlando may provide to be an excellent fit for other free agents. Most notably, Toronto’s Fred Vanvleet (PO), Denver’s Bruce Brown (PO), New Orleans’ Herbert Jones (TO), and Washington’s Kyle Kuzma (PO) would all be welcome additions in Orlando.
Of the four players listed, Vanvleet is the most likely pending free agent to sign with Orlando. As reported by NBA senior insider Shams Charania, Toronto was actively shopping their entire roster at the 2023 trade deadline, including Vanvleet, 2023 All-Star Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Gary Trent Jr. In spite of this, Toronto decided to keep their enticing trade pieces, while also adding San Antonio’s Jakob Poeltl ahead of the deadline. With Vanvleet, Trent Jr, and Poeltl all slated to hit free agency, Orlando has a prime opportunity to add Vanvleet to the young roster with a reasonable contract.
It’s worth noting that Vanvleet, Brown, Jones, and Kuzma either have upcoming player or team options, meaning they are much easier to be retained by their current team. Therefore, Miami’s Max Strus (UFA), Charlotte’s Kelly Oubre (UFA), Dallas’ Christain Wood (UFA), and Denver’s Thomas Bryant (UFA) are much more realistic targets for the Magic in free agency.
4. What Impact Will Mid-Season Free Agent Signing Goga Bitadze Have on the Magic?
On February 13th, Orlando’s President of Basketball Operations Jeff Weltman announced the addition of Bitadze, who signed a two-year contract shortly after being waived by Indiana. For reference, Orlando’s acquisition of Bitadze was in response to the Magic trading Mo Bamba to the Lakers at the 2023 NBA trade deadline.
Since being selected with the No. 18 pick in the 2019 draft by the Pacers, Bitadze has been a solid-two way center in Indiana. In 170 career games with the Pacers, Bitadze averaged 11.5 MPG, 4.8 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 0.8 APG, and 0.9 APG while shooting 48.0% from the field, 25.6% from three-point range, and 67.9% from the free-throw line. With the midseason trade of all-star forward Domantas Sabonis, Bitadze showed flashes of stardom, averaging a career-high 14.6 MPG, 7.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.1 APG, and 0.9 BPG in 50 games (16 starts).
With Bamba now in Los Angeles, Bitadze will serve as a key bench player behind Wendell Carter Jr and Moritz Wagner. In addition, Bitadze has plenty of room to grow, as the 6’11”, 250-pound center is just 23 years old.
5. Reaching Contract Extensions with Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner Serves as Orlando’s Main Offseason Priority
Throughout the 2023 offseason, managing cap space while constructing their roster will be extremely important for the Magic. Currently, Orlando has just $67.2 million committed for the 2023-2024 season. It’s worth noting that the aforementioned figure doesn’t include non-guaranteed amounts for Jonathan Isaac ($17.4 million), Gary Harris ($13.0 million), Bol Bol ($2.2 million) and Goga Bitadze ($2.6 million). Based on their play this season, it seems likely that the Magic will retain Isaac, Harris, and Bol, which will make Orlando commit $32.3 million between the three players next season.
From there, Orlando will need to sign their two upcoming first-round draft picks, which will equate to ~$12 million. In accounting for all of the aforementioned transactions, Orlando will commit $111.5 million for the 2023 season, which leaves the Magic $22.5 million under the $134 million projected salary cap. Therefore, Orlando should be quite active during the 2023 free agency period, but should also use some of their finances to resign their key players, most notably Jalen Suggs and Wagner.
As the former No. 5 and No. 8 picks in the 2021 NBA draft, Suggs and Wagner are both nearing the end of their rookie contracts. Per Spotrac, Suggs and Wagner had their team options for the 2023-2024 season exercised, at $7.2 and $5.5 million respectively. In the 2024-2025 season, Orlando is able to pick up Suggs’ and Wagner’s second team options, at $9.1 and $7.0 million, and will then enter restricted free agency (RFA) in 2025-2026. With the current direction of the Magic’s rebuild, it seems that Suggs and Wagner will remain in Orlando for the foreseeable future, so signing both players to extensions is a clear priority in the coming offseason.