In spite of winning their second straight NFC South Division Title, the 2022-2023 season exposed a major issue inside of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That issue is the evident and undeniable decline of QB Tom Brady, who just finished his 23rd and final season in the NFL.
Without the expertise of super-bowl winning head coach and QB guru Bruce Arians, Brady has shown a noticeable statistical decline in recent years. In Brady’s final season with Arians as head coach, Brady threw for 5,316 passing yards, 43 passing touchdowns, and twelve interceptions while completing 67.5% of his pass attempts to lead Tampa Bay to a 13-4 record and their second-straight playoff appearance, following their incredible 2020-2021 run to Super Bowl LV.
In defensive-minded Todd Bowles’ first season as Tampa Bay’s head coach, Brady has endured noticeable struggles, throwing for 4,694 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, and nine interceptions while completing 66.8% of his pass attempts, finishing with an 8-9 regular-season record.
In reference to this, Tampa Bay’s entire offense was negatively affected by Brady’s decline, as the Buccaneers went from averaging 30.1 PPG (2nd in NFL) in the 2021-2022 season to averaging 18.5 PPG (24th in NFL) this season. Furthermore, Brady’s Receiving Corps has largely remained the same, headlined by Pro Bowl Receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in the last two seasons. While future Hall of Fame Tight End Rob Gronkowski and Veteran Wide Receiver Antonio Brown both departed Tampa Bay in the offseason, the Buccaneers managed to sign Wide Receivers Julio Jones and Russell Gage in Free Agency, while drafting Tight Ends Cade Otten and Ko Kieft in the 2022 NFL Draft as reinforcements for Brady.
Unfortunately, time has seemed to catch up to Brady, who announced his retirement from the NFL on February 1st via Twitter. With this said, Tampa Bay will have plenty of options to replace Brady through the 2023 NFL Free Agency.
1. Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants
2022-2023 NFL Stats: Sixteen Starts, 317 Completions, 472 Attempts, 3,205 Passing Yards, Fifteen Passing Touchdowns, Five Interceptions, 92.5 Passer Rating, 60.4 QBR, Five Game-Winning Drives, 120 Rush Attempts, 708 Rushing Yards, Seven Rushing Touchdowns, Six Total Fumbles.
After Jones, the No. 6 pick in the 2019 Draft, struggled mightily as the Giants’ QB1 through his first three seasons (12-25 OVR REC from 2019-2021), New York decided to hire former Buffalo Bills’ Offensive Coordinator Brian Daboll as their next Head Coach in order to try and revitalize Jones’ NFL career in his fourth NFL season. The aforementioned hiring of Daboll paid off tremendously, as Jones improved tremendously as a passer and runner. In Sixteen Starts this season, Jones completed 67.2% of his pass attempts for 3,205 passing yards, fifteen pass touchdowns, and five interceptions while adding 708 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns on 120 carries, all career-best. In reference to this, Jones led the Giants to a 9-6-1 overall record in games he started, and even helped New York clinch their first NFC Playoff Appearance for the first time since the 2016 season.
Simply put, Jones’ make-or-break season couldn’t have gone any better, as Jones is expected to be handsomely rewarded this offseason by the Giants or by other QB-needy teams in Free Agency. According to Sportrac, an expected contract for Jones in Free Agency would be a three-year, $76.6 Million Contract, which would make Jones the 15th highest-paid QB in the NFL. Furthermore, Jones’ average salary would be ~25.5 Million, which is slightly more expensive than Jones’ $22.3 Million Fifth-Year Rookie Option the Giants declined on April 28th, 2022. With the possible retirement of Brady, Tampa Bay will be financially able to prioritize the addition of Jones as their starting QB for the 2023-2024 season.
2. Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks
2022-2023 NFL Stats: Seventeen Starts, 399 Completions, 572 Attempts, 4,282 Passing Yards, 30 Passing Touchdowns, Eleven Interceptions, 100.9 Passer Rating, 61.1 QBR, Three Game Winning Drives, 68 Rushing Attempts, 366 Rushing Yards, One Rushing Touchdown, Eight Fumbles.
After Seattle traded longtime franchise QB Russell Wilson to Denver in exchange for rebuilding assets during the 2022 offseason, many expected the Seahawks to falter under journeyman QB Geno Smith, who was on his fourth team after flustering with the Jets, Giants, and Chargers. As it turns out, Smith posted the best statistical season of his career in Seattle, while managing to lead the Seahawks to a 9-8 record and No. 7 seed in the NFC Playoffs. In seventeen starts this season, Smith threw for 4282 passing yards, 30 passing touchdowns, and eleven interceptions while completing 69.8% of his pass attempts, all career-best marks. To no surprise, Smith was later named to the Pro Bowl, and is one of the favorites to win the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year Award. Smith even had a full circle moment occur during his career year, as the 32-year-old completed 18-of-29 pass attempts for 183 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, and a 103.1 Passer Rating to defeat the Jets 23-6 in Week Seventeen, eliminating his old team from Playoff Contention.
Similar to Jones, Smith will enjoy a major payday during the 2023 off-season courtesy of his improved play. As it currently stands, Sportrac projects Smith to earn a three-year, $108.5 Million Contract, with an average salary of $36.1 Million, which would make Smith the ninth-highest-paid QB in the NFL. At 32 years old, it’s unlikely that there will be a serious competition between teams to sign Smith, but it would make lots of sense for Tampa Bay. With the 19th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Tampa Bay will likely miss out on the top-tier QBs, but may land a developmental QB in the later rounds, such as BYU’s Jaren Hall, Standford’s Tanner McKee, Washington State’s Cameron Ward, or Maryland’s Taulia Tagovailoa. With this said, Smith would serve as a reliable mentor to a young and inexperienced rookie, and Smith’s competent play would be enough to keep Tampa Bay within the thick of the NFC Playoff Picture for the coming years.
Four Additional QB Options Via the 2023 NFL Free Agency
3. Derek Carr, QB, Las Vegas Raiders: After leading the Raiders to a 10-7 Overall Record and improbable playoff berth in the 2021-2022 season, Carr was expected to take another statistical leap with Las Vegas hiring former Patriots’ Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels as the new Head Coach and adding Superstar Wide Receiver Davante Adams. As it turns out, Carr faltered immensely, posting his worst statistical season since the 2017-2018 season. In fifteen starts (6-9 OVR REC) this season, Carr completed 305-502 pass attempts for 3,522 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, and a league-worst fourteen interceptions. As a result, Las Vegas benched Carr for backup Quarterback Jarrett Stidham in the final two games, which has made Carr’s future as a Raider quite uncertain.
4. Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, San Fransisco 49ers: Following the season-ending injury of 2021 No. 3 draft pick Trey Lance, San Fransisco opted for Lance to take over, and played well in relief, completing 207-308 pass attempts for 2,437 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns, and four interceptions in ten games (7-3 OVR REC). Unfortunately, Garoppolo suffered a broken foot in week thirteen, ending his 2022-2023 season. The aforementioned injury is one of Garoppolo’s many injuries throughout his career, and would be a volatile signing by Tampa Bay barring an exit from San Fransisco.
5. Baker Mayfield, QB, Los Angeles Rams: Mayfield has endured quite the 2022-2023 season, starting the 2022-2023 season as the starting QB in Carolina before being benched, cut, and later signed by Los Angeles at the end of the season. In twelve games with the Panthers and Rams, Mayfield completed 201-335 pass attempts for 2,163 passing yards, ten passing touchdowns, and eight interceptions (2-8 OVR REC). Although Mayfield’s success in Los Angeles may be attributed to Sean McVay’s QB-friendly offensive scheme, Mayfield wouldn’t be a bad one-year option for the Buccaneers after the expected departure of Brady.
6. Sam Darnold, QB, Carolina Panthers: Shortly after Mayfield was cut by Carolina, Darnold retook the QB1 role for the Panthers, and played well, completing 82-140 pass attempts for 1,143 passing yards, seven passing touchdowns, and three interceptions while adding 106 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns on 26 carries. (4-2 OVR REC). In spite of his late-season success, many teams will be hesitant to add Darnold due to his horrific stint as the Jets’ QB from 2018-2020. In 38 games with the Gang Green, Darnold posted a 13-25 record while throwing for 8,097 passing yards, 45 passing touchdowns, and a whopping 39 interceptions.