Entering the 2022-2023 NFL Season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were universally viewed as one of the NFL’s premier teams. On May 10th, the Buccaneers were +700 Odds to make the 2023 Super Bowl, tied with the Buffalo Bills for the best odds in the league.
After 14 weeks of the NFL Season has been played, however, things have not gone to plan for the Buccaneers. At 6-7, Tampa Bay is enduring their worst statistical season with Tom Brady at quarterback, and have seen lackluster play from various positions on offense and defense. In addition to this, Carolina, Atlanta, and New Orleans all remain in contention for the NFC South, putting more pressure on the 20202-2021 Super Bowl Champions.
NFC South Standings
| TEAM | W | L | T | PCT | PF | PA | DIFF | HOME | ROAD | DIV | CONF | STRK | DIV | POST |
| Tampa Bay | 6 | 7 | 0 | .462 | 224 | 254 | -30 | 4-3-0 | 2-4-0 | 3-1-0 | 6-3-0 | L1 | 72.5% | 72.9% |
| Carolina | 5 | 8 | 0 | .385 | 260 | 290 | -30 | 4-3-0 | 1-5-0 | 3-1-0 | 4-5-0 | W2 | 20.4% | 20.6% |
| Atlanta | 5 | 8 | 0 | .385 | 288 | 312 | -24 | 4-3-0 | 1-5-0 | 1-3-0 | 4-5-0 | L2 | 6.3% | 6.6% |
| New Orleans | 4 | 9 | 0 | .308 | 265 | 297 | -32 | 3-4-0 | 1-5-0 | 1-3-0 | 3-6-0 | L2 | 0.0% | <1.0% |
As shown above, all four teams have a legitimate chance to win the NFC South and host a playoff game as the No. 4 seed. However, Tampa Bay remains in prime position to win the NFC South Division Title for the third straight season due to an easy remaining schedule and possible scenarios that may play out.
The Significance of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Remaining Schedule
As previously mentioned, Tampa Bay’s remaining schedule serves as a major boost to their playoff chances. For reference, the Buccaneers have the seventh-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL, according to their opponents’ combined win percentage. In addition to this, two of the Buccaneer’s next four games will be played at Raymond James Stadium, where Tampa Bay is 4-3 at home compared to 2-4 on the road. In spite of this, Tampa Bay will face one of their most difficult opponents off the season in Week 15, hosting the Cincinnati Bengals. Through the superstar play of Quarterback Joe Burrow, Running Back Joe Mixon, and Wide Receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, Cincinnati has won five consecutive games and are the No. 5 seed in the AFC. If Tampa Bay is unable to defeat Cincinnati, they have just a 57% chance to win the NFC South without regarding their final three games of the season.
Fortunately, Tampa Bay may be able to afford a loss to the Bengals and still win the NFC South. In Week 16, the Buccaneers travels to Glendale, Arizona to play the Cardinals, who just loss dual-threat Quarterback Kyler Murray for the season to a Torn ACL. With journeyman Quarterback Colt McCoy expected to serve as Arizona’s QB1, Tampa Bay should have no issues with shutting the Cardinals’ lackluster offense down. In Week 17 and 18, Tampa Bay will face Carolina and Atlanta, with both games caring significant tiebreaker implications. If Carolina defeats Tampa Bay in Week 17, the Panthers will own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Buccaneers. With a win over Tampa Bay, Atlanta would avenge their week five while giving the Buccaneers a 3-3 record versus NFC South Opponents, which Atlanta would be able to tie.
The Significance of the Carolina Panthers’ Remaining Schedule
Of the three teams competing with Tampa Bay for the NFC South Title, Carolina has the best case to knock off Brady and the Buccaneers. Believe it or not, Carolina actually has the easiest remaining schedule in the NFC South and the fifth easiest remaining schedule in the entire NFL. In Week 15, the Panthers will play the Pittsburgh Steelers, who may be without 2022 first-round pick Kenny Pickett (concussion) at Quarterback. With either Mason Rudolph or Mitchell Trubisky expected to start, Pittsburgh’s offense will likely stall for the majority of the game, giving Carolina a prime opportunity to notch their sixth win of the season.
If Carolina does defeat Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay loses to Cincinnati in Week 15, the Panthers would have a 45% chance of winning the NFC South with the Buccaneers odds dropping to 50%. Carolina does have a difficult matchup versus the red-hot Detroit Lions in Week 16, before facing Tampa Bay in a crucial Week 17 matchup. If Carolina manages to beat Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay over the next three weeks, then the Panthers would need to beat the Saints in Week 18 to secure the NFC South Title, their first since 2015.