Last Season Finish – 53-29 (#1 seed), Lost Eastern Conference Finals in 7 games to Boston
Offseason Recap
The Miami Heat had a relatively quiet offseason.
Losing P.J. Tucker to the conference rival Philadelphia 76ers could be a tough loss (although having Tucker, Butler, and Adebayo on the floor is a bit of a spacing nightmare). However, no other players of note were lost.
Emerging guard Tyler Herro signed a four year, $140M contract in early October, proving that Pat Riley and the front office believe that the young 6th MOTY award winner can be a major part of the future going forward for the Heat.
Miami also gave Victor Oladipo a two year, $18M deal to stay with the team. Oladipo only played eight games in the regular season, but had some quality performances in the playoffs whether other guards were either out (Lowry) or not playing very well (Herro, Robinson, and Strus). Oladipo, a former All-Star, has shown that he can still score and maneuver well enough on offense, but the injuries and shooting numbers (27% from 3 in the ‘22 playoffs) need to be addressed when discussing Oladipo’s future and fit on the team.
Nikola Jovic was selected out of Serbia with the 27th pick in the 2022 draft, and with the Heat’s lack of depth at power forward, Jovic has a real shot at playing time early. Jovic is highly developed offensively, and is considered a three-level player when his team has the ball. Jovic can shoot well from behind the arc, has solid dribble moves for someone that is 6’10+ and can distribute the ball a bit as well. To put it nicely, Jovic has a lot of room to improve defensively, as he can look a step slow, or lost on many possessions. Unfortunately, Jovic is still very raw as of the beginning of the 22-23 season, and will need serious reps this year if the Heat want him starting by the playoffs. Miami has shown many times that they can be the best in player development in the NBA, and they have a lot of talent to work with in Jovic.
Running it Back
With no major additions, the Heat are again looking at a core that has produced solid playoff success, but has yet to climb the mountaintop. The window is coming to a close, as point guard Kyle Lowry is 36 and star forward Jimmy Butler is 33 years of age. If Lowry and Butler stay healthy this season (a big “what-if” with the duo missing a combined 44 regular season games last year) then the older stars will look with expectant eyes upon its young core that was very underwhelming in the ‘21-’22 campaign. Duncan Robinson currently has one of the worst contracts in the NBA with the sharpshooter slated to make nearly $17M this season. He did not play one single minute in the Heat’s Game 7 loss to the Celtics in the ECF, and averaged 5.6 points per game when he did play in this past year’s playoffs.
Herro has big expectations as well, especially with the new contract. The 22 year old has not been able to replicate his 2020 bubble playoff performance, as in 2022 he averaged just 12.6 points to go with 23% from the three-point line. Herro must be better in the big moments for the Heat to have a chance at another finals run this year.
Finally, Bam Adebayo must take the next step forward in his career. Many, including myself, saw Adebayo as an Anthony Davis-lite in his first years, with defensive prowess, a good enough jumper, and the frame to guard nearly anyone in the NBA. Adebayo has been solid enough for this Heat team, but Bam has disappeared in a few big moments. Like Herro, Adebayo’s best career performances came in the bubble in 2020, where Bam famously stuffed Jason Tatum for a Game 1 win. Adebayo needs to be able to finish games when Butler is unable to, and the young piece for the Heat just has not shown that often enough, but this year will be a great opportunity for Adebayo to continue towards the trajectory he was previously on.
“Himmy” Butler?
Jimmy Butler was donned the nickname “Himmy Butler” during last year’s Celtics playoff run, where he nearly willed the Heat to another finals performance. Butler has year in, year out, shown that he is one of the best players on the biggest stage. Jimmy has shown that he can become a new player when it really matters, locking down the opponents best player while driving effortlessly into the lane for tough finishes and foul shots. However, there has always been a caveat with Butler, and that is the shooting numbers. Butler is not nearly efficient as he needs to be with his jumpshot. Jimmy “Buckets” has not shot over 25% from three since he played with the 76ers. A bad or inefficient jump shot allows the defense to sag off and pay more attention to other shooters, while simultaneously guarding the drive better, something that stagnates offenses. And when he could have put all of the shooting efficiency and analytics nerds to bed with a game winning shot to send his team to the Finals, Butler does what he has done on over 65% of his playoff attempts, missed.
Expectations
The Heat come into this year with more questions than answers. Although this Heat team once again has a shot at a deep playoff run, many things must go right. I would expect the Heat to be one of the better regular season teams, as per usual, but will the uncertain young pieces gel well enough with championship-driven Butler and Lowry?
If everything goes to plan, the Heat will find themselves with a shot at the title, but if the young pieces don’t play up to their potential, and Butler and Lowry find themselves injured, then the Heat will be in for another Spo masterclass without much more than a first round exit. Butler must find a comfortable outside shot or start looking for others deep into playoff games. The Heat will only go as far as he takes them.
Check out our video preview for the Miami Heat’s upcoming season – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5e7UCdDJ64&t=1185s