Following Week 5 of college football action, there is now a solid sample size to judge each of Florida’s 7 FBS teams. Today I will be using a confidence meter to gauge each team’s hopes for the remainder of the season.
Confidence Meter Explained– A score of 1-10 will be given to each team based on performance this season so far, future strength of schedule, statistics, as well as the eye test to determine my confidence in the team for the rest of the year.
#1 The University of South Florida
Last Game- East Carolina 48 USF 28
The Bulls have slogged greatly through a tough non-conference schedule. BYU, Louisville, ECU, and UF all proved to be too much for USF this year. The offense has looked lost and young through the first 5 games, with starting QB Gerry Bohanon throwing 3 touchdowns compared to 6 interceptions. The Baylor transfer has struggled with the new offense, not looking like the Bohanon who lead the Bears to a #5 ranking in the final AP Poll of 2021. The defense hasn’t been much better either, allowing 38 points per game to their opponents. Bob Shoop’s group has also allowed 6(!) yards per carry, a part of the game that must be cleaned up. The conference schedule doesn’t have any cupcakes either, so the Bulls will have to start playing with more consistency if they want to have any shot at a bowl game, but at the moment, that doesn’t look very likely. Look for Jeff Scott to play younger personnel, as well as a simplified offense going into conference play. Bulls fans are going to have to sit back and enjoy the process the rest of the year.
Next 3: at Cincinnati, v. Tulane, at Houston
Player to Watch: Jimmy Horn Jr. (Wide Receiver)
The electric offensive talent has been one of the few bright spots offensively for USF this year, catching 2 TDs against ECU. Horn may be undersized at 5’9 and 174lbs, but he has a shot to score nearly every time he touches the ball, averaging 20.4 yards per reception through Week 5. Horn Jr. could be a key to the improvement of this Bulls offense.
Confidence Meter- 2
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#2 The University of Florida
Last Game– Eastern Washington 17 UF 52
Like most years, the Gators came into the 2022 season with high expectations. Anthony Richardson, the 6’4 231lb tank and possible Heisman candidate would be taking over after some pretty forgetful Emory Jones years. However, through 5 games Richardson has been one of the most inconsistent quarterbacks in the FBS, UF is 3-2, as well as being tied for last in the SEC East. Florida has lost to two very good football teams in Tennessee and Kentucky, but Florida had just as much, if not more talent than those two teams, but as football so often does, the games came down to quarterback play. Hendon Hooker and Will Levis are two projected NFL draft prospects who lead their team with poise and solid decision making throughout the game, something Richardson just could not do. His passing has not been good enough to keep it close with those high level SEC QB’s, but the sophomore has a massive amount of talent, the body, and the tools around him to become one of those players, it just has not been consistent this season. The interception to seal the game against Kentucky is a great example of turnovers that just cannot happen if you want to be a top team in the nation. UF is starting SEC play this week, and it remains the toughest conference in the nation. Napier needs to finish out year one strong, but he can only go as far as Richardson will take him. I expect the Gators to squeak by and make a bowl game.
Next 3: at Missouri, v. LSU, at Georgia
Player to Watch– Trevor Etienne (Running Back)
The freshman running back out of Jennings, Louisiana has shown major flashes through the first 5 games. Etienne has averaged 6.4 yards per rush on 35 attempts this season, and has formed a formidable rushing attack with Montrell Johnson and Richardson. Although the back is only a freshman, expect his touches to continue to rise as Etienne plays well.
Confidence Meter – 6
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#3 Florida International University
Last Game – FIU 21 NMSU 7
FIU is probably one of the 10 worst FBS programs currently. However, they got a huge victory over another struggling program, New Mexico State University, in Week 5. Other than this past Saturday, Florida International has had a pretty awful season. Only playing 4 games so far, FIU started Week 1 with a win over FCS Bryant, but lost a combined 12-114 to Western Kentucky and Texas St the next two weeks. This is a program in total rebuild mode, and luckily the rest of the year presents a C-USA schedule riddled with bad football teams. FIU’s offense continues to look for identity as they have only thrown for 200 yards once and have had zero 100 yard rushers so far this year. Head Coach Mike MacIntyre is faced with an uphill battle in his first year, and will continue to try to look the part for conference play. Hopefully FIU can show some fight in their final 8 games.
Next 3: v. UCONN, v. UTSA, at Charlotte
Player to Watch– Demetrius Hill (Safety)
It is not very often that a defensive back leads their team in tackles, but it is what Hill has done so far for this Panthers D. The 6’2 freshman has been a sight for sore eyes for this FIU squad. Hill has the opportunity to be a 4 year starter for this squad.
Confidence Meter – 1
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#4 University of Central Florida
Last Game– UCF 40 SMU 14
Year 2 under skipper Gus Malzahn has been solid so far for the Knights. UCF takes a 3-1 record (loss to UL) into American play, setting up for a chance to win the conference for the first time since 2018. John Rhys Plumlee has the keys to the offense in 2022, leading the offense in passing (827 yards) and rushing (404 yds). He is the prototypical Malzahn QB, a real running threat, and enough arm to make things happen. The offense isn’t the best unit on this team though, as the defense has only allowed 13.5 points per game, good for 8th in the nation. UCF can no longer be judged by GO5 standards however, because their move into the Big12 is only one season away. Malzahn has done a good enough job so far to make viewers believe that UCF could compete in a Power 5 setting. I think UCF could win the remainder of their games, but the AAC is very frisky this year, with teams like ECU, Tulane and Temple having solid seasons so far. After a dominant Wednesday night win against SMU, UCF is rolling. I don’t think this UCF team has the talent (and Plumlee’s erratic passing won’t help) to work themselves into a “New Years 6” bowl, but I do believe this team can finish with a record they can build on going into the Big12.
Next 3: v. Temple, @ECU , v. Cincinnati
Player to Watch– Javon Baker
Baker has been Plumlee’s favorite target so far, garnering 18 catches for 257 yards and two “tuddys” over the 4 games. The Junior wears #1 for a reason and is one of the leaders of the offense. Baker is a thick 208 pounds and can use his body to make catches and punish defenders for trying to guard him. Baker is an X-factor for UCF’s last 8 games.
Confidence – 8
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#5 Florida Atlantic University
Last Game– FAU 28 North Texas 45
The year has been a struggle so far for the Owls. They have struggled to recapture 2019’s Lane Kiffin magic (11-3 record) in the time since. FAU goes into their 7th game with a record of 2-4, with losses against Purdue, North Texas, UCF and Ohio. The offense has been solid enough, averaging 31.8 points per game thus far this season. However, Nkosi Perry has not been nearly consistent enough passer deep into FAU’s games. Against North Texas he attempted 50 passes and only completed 26 and also threw two interceptions. If your offensive coordinator is trusting you to throw 50 passes, completing 52% of your attempts in a fast paced C-USA setting is just not going to get it done. The Owls played a tough Purdue team close, but doesn’t really have any other quality performances on the season (Charlotte is terrible and SouthEastern is FCS). Coach Taggart’s defensive unit has been giving up over 29 points per game, and has struggled mightily against the pass (15 TD’s over 6 games). I don’t see the Owls reaching a bowl game unless there are some major changes made to this FAU team. Enjoy the rebuild.
Next 3: v. Rice, at. UTEP, v. UAB
Player to Watch– LaJohntay Wester (Wide Receiver)
Currently leads the country in receiving touchdowns (8), and can run any route. Perry’s favorite target and the biggest bright spot so far for the Owls. The Palmetto native will be a dude to watch for the remainder of conference play.
Confidence – 2
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#6 Florida State University
Last Game– Wake 31 FSU 21
Possibly the best team in the state of Florida. Suffered a really tough loss to Sam Hartman and Wake Forest in Week 5, but has looked solid in every game so far. Jordan Travis has certainly been a top 15 quarterback in college this year (11th in ESPN’s QBR), as the game has slowed down for him. His decision making not only on his passing reads, but the choice whether to scramble or not is much improved from years past. Now that Head Coach Mike Norvell has a few years to integrate his system, the offense looks very smooth a majority of the time. However, State’s defense has left much to be desired, struggling against elite QB play so far this year (Sam Hartman of Wake, UL’s Malik Cunningham, as well as having tough stretches against LSU starter Jayden Daniels. The battle in the trenches has been one of the biggest defensive issues, as many plays the DLine does not get the push necessary to slow down the opponent. The schedule ahead will show if the Seminoles are for real, with 3/5 next opponents coming into the game ranked. The offense is at a high level, but the defense needs to catch up for this team to make some NY6 noise.
Next 3: at. NC St., v. #5 Clemson, v. Georgia Tech
Player to Watch– Ryan Fitzgerald (Kicker)
It’s not often that I pick a kicker as a player to watch, but Fitzgerald has struggled mightily for the Seminoles, making only 4/9 field goal attempts and going 1/3 from 30-39 yards. Will Fitzgerald hold this team back in clutch situations? That is yet to be seen.
Confidence – 7
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#7 University of Miami
Last Game – MTSU 45 UM 31
To begin the year, Miami was attributed as a sleeper team for the CFP, but the product on the field so far has not been up to that level. This starts with QB1 Tyler Van Dyke, who had an opportunity to be a high level first round pick with a great season this year, but without his main target Xavier Restrepo, Van Dyke has struggled with consistency, control of the offense, and completions (59.3%). TVD was even benched for backup Jake Garcia in the Middle Tenn St. game. Many fans are calling for Garcia to be the starter, as Van Dyke has put up a measly 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions through 4 games. But maybe the expectations were just too high for year one of Mario Cristobal, who has done a lot of great things with the program so far, including bringing in past legends to practice, coach, and mentor the Hurricanes. In losses to Texas A&M and MTSU the offense was not where it needed to be, and the defense struggled badly against MTSU as well, surrendering 45 points to the group of 5 team. The defensive backfield could use some serious work going into conference play, allowing more than 10 yards per pass attempt. However, with the amount of talent Miami has, they can still shake up conference play, but the team can only go as far as Tyler Van Dyke takes them.
Next 3: v. North Carolina, at. VT, vs. Duke
Player to Watch– Michael Redding III (Wide Receiver)
With Restrepo likely out another 5-6 weeks, the 6’2 Covid Freshman has a chance to cement himself as a cornerstone of this offense going forward. Redding should be able to take advantage of some weak ACC secondaries in the coming weeks.
Confidence – 5
Final Confidence Ratings (Out of 10)
#1 UCF (8)
#2. FSU (7)
#3. UF (6)
#4. UM (5)
#5. FAU (3)
#6. USF (2)
#7. FIU (1)