The Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers both won their round one matchups, setting up the Battle of Florida in round two.
Quick Facts
- The season series is tied at 2-2
- Florida won their first playoff round since 1996 in round one
- The two franchises met last year in round one; Tampa Bay won the series 4-2
- Carter Verhaeghe is second in the playoffs in points, with 12
- Florida and Tampa Bay are two of five teams that have only used one goalie in the playoffs this year
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning won their first round matchup against the Toronto Maple Leafs in an action-packed seven game series. Tampa Bay’s game seven hero was Nick Paul who scored both goals in a 2-1 win. This is important as depth scoring was labeled as an x-factor in round one. There was no doubt the depth delivered, as the bottom six forwards combined for 17 points. The third line of Nick Paul, Brandon Hagel, and Ross Colton combined for six goals in the series, nearly a goal per game. It is obvious that the depth scoring came through in round one, and should come through again against Florida. There was one major problem in round one, however, and it will be the x-factor in round two.
The x-factor for round two will be Andrei Vasilevskiy’s play. Vasilevskiy allowed an average of 3.04 goals against a game, in addition to a .897 save percentage. The big cat let in three or more goals in all round one games except for game seven. Against one of the best goal scoring teams this season, if Vasilevskiy continues to play in such form, the Lightning will struggle. The Panthers had 199 shot attempts in round one, and with Vasilevskiy’s save percentage he would have let in around 20.5 goals. Florida scored 20 goals in their first round matchup, meaning that if the Florida defense keeps up to its first round standard they will win round two. Vasilevskiy needs to improve his play for a Tampa Bay round two win.
Florida Panthers
Florida won the President’s Trophy with 122 points sprouting from a 58-18-6 record. Every eastern conference team amassed at least 100 points, meaning no matter what the first round would be a battle. Despite this being the case, the Panthers played an underwhelming round one. Florida were in the bottom half of scoring in round one, despite dominating the scoring total during the season. On the other hand, Carter Verhaeghe is second in playoff scoring with 12 points. In addition, the Panthers finally broke through round one after a long drought following their cup final run in 1996. Through all the ups and downs, there is one underlying factor that is crucial and will be the key to success in round two.
The x-factor for Florida is their special teams play. The Panthers power play is last through round one, going 0-for-18 against the Caps. Flipping the roles, on the penalty kill, Florida ranks twelfth in the playoffs, killing 70.8% of power plays. Through averaging both teams special teams percentages, Tampa Bay would have outscored Florida on the power play 6-1. In the final minutes of games, a power play can make a big difference. With Florida’s inability to score they would not be able to find that game-changing goal. If the Panthers can clear up their play on both sides of special teams, they can easily shift a deciding game’s momentum in their favor. Special teams will be vital to beat an experienced Tampa Bay team in round two.
Authors Prediction
Over the last twenty years, the President’s Trophy winner has been eliminated on average in either the second or third round. Just like the Maple Leafs, will Florida shake the curse? The Panthers already shook off their round winning curse, but has the luck run out? When it comes down to Vasilevskiy and special teams issues, I think a Vasilevskiy fix is much easier.
Tampa Bay will win the series, 4-3.