With the New Year upon us, the first half of the NBA Season is nearing an end. The NBA’s 71st All-Star Break and Game is only one month away, ranging from February 18th to 20th. Being selected to the All-Star Game is one of the most prestigious honors you can earn in the NBA, along with winning any of the Yearly NBA Awards. One of the more impressive Awards is the Rookie of the Year Award, which has its deepest pool of competitors ever. As it stands, six rookies have had superb starts to their NBA Careers, but only one can win the award. By analyzing each rookie’s stats and the brief history of the ROTY Award, it becomes clear that Orlando’s Franz Wagner should win the 2022 NBA ROTY Award.
Wagner Has Already Had Multiple Historic Performances in his Rookie Season
Despite his fantastic start to his career, Wagner has already had multiple career-defining games in his rookie season. During Orlando’s matchup with Philadelphia on November 29th, Wagner joined Cole Anthony, Victor Oladipo, Jameer Nelson, Penny Hardaway, and Shaquille O’Neal as the only Magic rookies ever with a 25/5/5 game, where he had 27 points, six rebounds, and five assists. Just one month later, Wagner rewrote the history books yet again in Orlando’s 110-127 loss to Milwaukee. In this game, Wagner scored a career-high 38 points, seven rebounds, and three assists while shooting 12-20 (60.0%) from the field and 4-8 (50.0%) from three-point range. With that performance, Wagner joined Dennis Scott (1990) and O’Neal (1993) as the only other rookies in Orlando Magic franchise history to score 38 points in a game. Wagner’s 32.3 game score is also the highest by any rookie this season.
Wagner’s fellow rookies have also had historic moments in the NBA, just for the wrong reasons. Detroit’s No. 1 overall pick Cade Cunningham shot 7-39 (17.9%) from the field in his three games in the NBA, marking the worst field goal percentage for a player with at least 30 attempts since the NBA/ABA merger in 1976. Oklahoma City’s Josh Giddey became the second player in NBA history to post a scoreless Double-Double, where he had zero points (0-8 on FG attempts), 10 rebounds, and 10 assists. It’s expected to see these rookies struggle in their first professional season, but Wagner hasn’t had any signs of growing pains thus far into his NBA career.
Wagner’s Statistics Compared to the NBA’s 2021-2022 Top Rookies
As we all know, Wagner’s production on the court has been amazing this season. After all, it’s a tough task to be heavily depended on by your team when it comes to leading the offense and making plays on defense. Here’s a look at Wagner’s stats compared to his rookie counterparts, who will also be considered for the Rookie of the Year Award:
- Wagner’s 2021-2022 Stats: 35 Games Played, 32.4 MPG, 15.6 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.1 SPG, 44.8% FG, 36.4% 3-Point, 82.9% FT, 15.1 PER.
- Scottie Barnes’ 2021-2022 Stats: 27 Games Played, 36.0 MPG, 15.6 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.1 SPG, 49.4% FG, 35.6% 3-Point, 72.6% FT, 17.4 PER.
- Evan Mobley’s 2021-2022 Stats: 26 Games Played, 33.5 MPG, 14.1 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 2.4 APG, 0.9 SPG, 48.5% FG, 34.1% 3-Point, 78.2% FT, 16.1 PER.
- Cade Cunningham’s 2021-2022 Stats. 25 Games Played, 32.4 MPG, 15.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 5.2 APG, 1.4 SPG, 38.3% FG, 31.4% 3-Point, 84.9% FT, 11.8 PER.
- Jalen Green’s 2021-2022 Stats: 20 Games Played, 30.9 MPG, 14.8 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.4 APG, 0.8 SPG, 39.5% FG, 31.6% 3-Point, 80.6% FT, 9.6 PER.
- Josh Giddey’s 2021-2022 Stats: 30 Games Played, 30.0 MPG, 10.8 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 6.1 APG, 0.9 SPG, 38.8% FG, 24.5% 3-Point, 65.1% FT, 12.5 PER.
At first glance, Wagner and Toronto’s Scottie Barnes dominate most statistical categories. In eight of the ten statistical categories listed above, either Wagner and/or Barnes lead it. What this means is that Wagner’s and Barnes’ games don’t have glaring struggles in their games, they just do everything to a good or great level. This doesn’t mean that the other ROY Competitors have flawless stats, however. Take Cunningham’s stats, for example. While Cunningham has played the fewest games this season, he still ranks inside the top-three among the six players in PPG, APG, and SPG. Despite this, Cunningham owns the worst or second-worst mark in FG%, 3-Point%, and PER, giving him a weaker argument than Wagner, Barnes, or Mobley. The same can be said for Giddey, who nearly averages a Triple-Double, but shoots a woeful 38.8% from the field and 24.5% from downtown. In addition to Jalen Green’s inconsistent shooting, suffering a strained left hamstring that kept him sidelined for a month isn’t ideal for his ROTY case.
The Brief History of the NBA’s Rookie of the Year Award
After examining each of the six ROY contender’s stats, we can exclude Cunningham, Green, and Giddey from the contest, leaving Wagner, Barnes, and Mobley as the three finalists. There has to be another aspect of these rookie’s games that we can use to differentiate the true contenders from the ‘casual contenders’. Looking back at the last 18 ROTY winners and their team can give us a clue on what factors actually matter in the eyes of the voters:
- 2020-2021 Winner: PG LaMelo Ball on the 33-39 Charlotte Hornets
- 2019-2020 Winner: PG Ja Morant on the 34-39 Memphis Grizzlies
- 2018-2019 Winner: PG/SG Luka Doncic on the 33-49 Dallas Mavericks
- 2017-2018 Winner: PG/SF Ben Simmons on the 52-30 Philadelphia 76ers
- 2016-2017 Winner: PG/SG Malcolm Brogden on the 42-40 Milwaukee Bucks
- 2015-2016 Winner: PF/C Karl Anthony-Towns on the 29-53 Minnesota Timberwolves
- 2014-2015 Winner: SG/SF Andrew Wiggins on the 16-66 Minnesota Timberwolves
- 2013-2014 Winner: PG/SG Michael Carter-Williams on the 19-63 Philadelphia 76ers
- 2012-2013 Winner: PG Damian Lillard on the 33-49 Portland Trail Blazers
- 2011-2012 Winner: PG Kyrie Irving on the 21-45 Cleveland Cavaliers
- 2010-2011 Winner: PF/C Blake Griffin on the 32-50 Los Angeles Clippers
- 2009-2010 Winner: SG Tyreke Evans on the 25-57 Sacramento Kings
- 2008-2009 Winner: PG Derrick Rose on the 41-41 Chicago Bulls
- 2007-2008 Winner: SF Kevin Durant on the 20-62 Seattle Supersonics
- 2006-2007 Winner: SG Brandon Roy on the 32-50 Portland Trail Blazers
- 2005-2006 Winner: PG Chris Paul on the 38-44 New Orleans Hornets
- 2004-2005 Winner: PF/C Emeka Okafor on the 18-64 Charlotte Bobcats
- 2003-2004 Winner: SF Lebron James on the 35-47 Cleveland Cavaliers
The First Trend of the Former Rookie of the Year Winners: The ‘Big Man’ Against Everyone Else
After thoroughly analyzing the former ROTY winners, two major patterns emerge. The first trend is that frontcourt players, especially centers, rarely win the award. Since 2003, only three ‘big men’ have won the ROTY Award, and have often needed absurd statlines to do so. Take Blake Griffin’s 2010-2011 ROY Campaign, for example. While playing all 82 games, Griffin averaged 22.5 PPG, 12.1 RPG, and 3.8 APG and shot 50.6% FG, which blew his Rookie Competition out of the water. In fact, Griffin ranked first or second in Games Played, Minutes Played, MPG, PPG, RPG, APG, Field Goals made, Offensive Rebounds, Total Rebounds, and Total Assists among his rookie counterparts that season. That’s not a season for a normal rookie to have. What this tells us is that Mobley’s ROTY chances hinge on him having an All-Time Rookie season, which he isn’t on pace to accomplish.
The Second Trend of the Former Rookie of the Year Winners: Team Success isn’t an Important Factor
The second trend is that the Voters rarely hold the success of the team against the ROTY finalists. At first, this seems like a counterintuitive statement, as the MVP Award is often given to the best player on the best team. As you can see above, however, this isn’t the case for the ROTY Award. Since James won the ROTY Award with Cleveland in the 2003-2004 Season, only three players have won the Award on teams with a record that’s .500 or better. The reason for this is that the team that usually has the ROTY was bad enough the previous season to have a lottery pick or even a top-five selection. This would typically mean that the incoming rookie would be tasked with a much larger role on both sides of the ball than if he was on a playoff team, for example. Barnes and Wagner have done just that, as they have been performing on the Eastern Conference’s 11th and 14th respective seeds.
Who Should Win the Rookie of the Year Award?
Through all of the statistical analysis between the six rookies, Barnes and Wagner just continue to match up as even as possible. At this point, it may just be considered as a toss-up between the two. Both Barnes and Wagner have exceeded expectations on bad teams, and have helped their teams in all aspects of the game. From a betting perspective, Wagner’s case is criminally underrated, as he is a +2500 to win the Award, behind Mobley (+125), Cunningham (+275), Barnes (+300), and Green (+2000). After comparing statistics and the history of the ROTY Award, it doesn’t make sense why Wagner is an afterthought when compared to Mobley, Cunningham, Barnes, and Green. If Wagner continues his superb play while staying healthy, then there is no reason for the Michigan alum to NOT win the 2022 ROTY Award.
(Featured image by Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports)