After losing the last two games by a combined 63 points, the Miami Heat find themselves facing a 3-0 deficit in their first-round matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks.
As you’ve probably been reminded multiple times by every sports outlet today: no team in NBA history has ever come back from being down 3-0 in a series. So it is obvious the Heat are facing a tall task. And while it may seem improbable–it isn’t impossible. The Heat will just need to do the following things in order to stay alive to win not just one game, but the next four.
Shorten The Bench & Rely on Stars
Rotations always shrink come playoff time. Right now, it is time for the Heat to shrink theirs as much as possible. We already know Jimmy Butler doesn’t mind playing big minutes. So let him play 48 straight if necessary. The Heat need to have their best lineup on the court every second that Giannis is out there, that is already understood. They also need to have their best lineup out there when Giannis is resting to take advantage of those moments as well.
That means as little Trevor Ariza and Andre Iguodala as possible. While both of them have been solid defensively, it isn’t a lack of defense that has killed Miami this series. Their inability to score and to score consistently has hampered them both early and late in games. Neither Ariza nor Iguodala provide enough of a threat to force the defense into adjustments. If the Heat want to find success against Milwaukee, they need to be physical, draw fouls, and play with extreme energy–something that neither of the Heat’s veteran wings are particularly adept at.
If the Heat want to try to find the hot hand among their bench, that is fine, but the leashes need to be SHORT. Nemanja Bjelica, Dewayne Dedmon, and Kendrick Nunn should all get a chance to see the court, but if their shots aren’t falling and they aren’t playing with high energy, they just can’t be out there in an elimination game. The Heat need to let Bam Adebayo, Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro and Butler see near-season highs in minutes (while also considering player health, obviously). If your season is ending, Miami should do it with their core on the court so they have no excuses if/when their season ends.
Draw Fouls on Giannis–Including Taking Charges
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the most talented player in the series. That isn’t a slight against Jimmy Butler (or Udonis Haslem) either, it is just a fact. Giannis’ ability to make plays, reach the basket, and change the dynamic of the Bucks’ offense and defense is undeniable. So the Heat need to get him off the court. Telling him he is amazing and that he needs a day off isn’t going to work, so the Heat need to try something else.
Don’t let Giannis get momentum going anywhere. Stand in front of him at every moment. If Giannis looks like he is about to start running, stand in front of him. The Heat need to forget everything they know about social distancing, and plant themselves firmly in front of Giannis everywhere he goes. If that doesn’t work, and the Heat are forced to attack him on the other side of the ball, so be it.
Any possession in which Giannis is guarding a Heat player and playing back a few feet to allow room to recover on the drive, that player needs to drive to the rim and try to posterize Giannis. Even if they have to become part of six different highlight blocks for Giannis, they’ve got to draw some fouls eventually. If Goran Dragic (one dunk in 6+ seasons with Miami) has been waiting for the perfect opportunity to show his hops, this is it. The Heat need to leave it all on the court out there–maybe even their common sense.
Exploit The Bucks’ Weaker Defenders– Switch Up Ball-Handling Duties
Jrue Holiday is one of the premier defenders in the NBA at either guard position. This might be one of the reasons he has posted a plus/minus of +78 over the past two games. He has done an exceptional job so far this series of stopping penetration and forcing Heat guards to surrender the ball. The Heat need to make a point of diving up ball-handling duties and allow different guys to bring the ball up court to avoid Jrue constantly being the on-ball defender. This means exploiting Brook Lopez, Bryn Forbes, and Bobby Portis as often as possible when they see the court.
This also means avoiding Giannis when possible, because he will hopefully be on the bench with foul trouble. The same advice goes for PJ Tucker as well. The Heat should just send a decoy into the corner to compliment Tucker’s shoes all game while the 4-on-4 action goes on around them.
Everybody on the Heat will need to take on additional point-guard duties in order to keep showing the Bucks different looks. Forcing the Bucks defense into unfamiliar positions should allow the Heat offensive opportunities that have been noticeably absent over the first three games of the series. Sure, we haven’t seen Duncan Robinson play much as a ball-handling facilitator this season, but that’s something he may be called on to do as Miami tries a different offensive set.
Start Udonis Haslem
Be honest with yourself right now. Do you really think Udonis Haslem is going to lose his last career game, let alone his last career start? No, he is not. So if the Heat really are serious about extending this series, Udonis Haslem may very well be the secret weapon.
As he has displayed with his back tattoo since entering the NBA nearly two decades ago, Udonis Haslem carries Florida on his back. He isn’t about to stop now.
I know it is asking a lot of Haslem to go through the motions of putting on a uniform, but this man is pure Miami Heat to his core, and he will understand the circumstances. After all, after playing 21,565 career minutes, what is another 48 minutes going to do during Game 4 on Saturday afternoon?