It’s that time of year again! The 2021 playoffs are about to start and the Tampa Bay Lightning want nothing more than to defend their 2020 Stanley Cup championship. First things first, they must win 16 games to get back to that mountaintop, beginning with their cross-state rivals in the Florida Panthers. In order to beat anyone, they must have a few aspects of their game clicking on all cylinders. Here are three things that could make or break the Bolts chances of repeating as Cup champs:
Special Teams
A great way to gain momentum, special teams can be a turning point in a series. The idea of making an opponent pay for their mistakes by playing a man down is important for a couple of reasons. First, it can throw an opponent off their game by planting seeds of doubt in their mind every time a penalty is committed.
Offensively
For a team with the offensive firepower that the Lightning has, it’s important to utilize that to their advantage. A top power play unit featuring Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman and Brayden Point is lethal. Couple that with a second unit comprised of Alex Killorn, Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson and Mikhail Sergachev.
The main issue is that the power play struggled at various times during the regular season. Yes, minor lulls should be expected, but major ones like they had to close out the season may be a cause for concern. This team has not scored with the man advantage since beating Dallas on May 5. However, they’ve struggled with that one aspect since Stamkos left the April 8 game vs. Columbus. He led the team with 10 power play goals at that time and no other player surpassed him in the 16 games he missed.
Defensively
It’s true that the Bolts power play ranked seventh out of 31 teams, but there’s no denying that they didn’t make opponents fear taking penalties. In fact, they probably got more opportunities during that time span. Their failure to cash in directly led to a few of their late season losses and potentially cost them home ice in Round 1.
While the power play sputtered, the penalty kill has been solid for much of the season. It ranked third among 31 teams and saved the team from paying for the penalties they took. There’s no doubt the team needs to play smarter but it’s always good when you can kill off your mistakes.
Going forward, the Lightning must take advantage of their opportunities to score on the power play. They should have both Stamkos and Kucherov back so there are no excuses. The penalty kill will have to continue their solid work minus Barclay Goodrow, who is listed as out indefinitely.
Goaltending
Andrei Vasilevskiy has saved the Lightning numerous times this season. His 31 wins lead the league and he’s got a .925 save percentage, good for ninth among all NHL goaltenders. He even has a solid 2.21 goals against average (GAA) in 42 games played.
Glancing at those numbers, one might be asking what’s the issue?
The problem lies in his numbers against the Panthers. He’s allowed 4+ goals to them in four of the eight meetings this season. That’s an even 50 percent. Against the other six Central Division teams, he’s only allowed four or more goals five times. There’s no denying the Cats can score practically at will against most teams and have outstanding goaltending, but their dominance of the Bolts is concerning.
Looking ahead, Vasilevskiy has to forget his regular season numbers when facing Florida in the first round. The playoffs are a different animal and he’s got the experience of winning when the stakes are at their highest. Now, he has to go out and perform like the Vasilevskiy from last year’s postseason. If he can do that, there’s little doubt this team can advance to Round 2 and possibly further.
Health
The Lightning got lucky in this department during last year’s run to the Cup. Sure, they suffered a few injuries and played without Stamkos for most of the playoffs, but the main core remained relatively healthy. This season has been different.
Minus Kucherov all season because of offseason hip surgery, they expected Stamkos, Hedman and Point to carry the load offensively. All three did that until Stamkos was injured April 8 and subsequently placed on long term injured reserve. Then, in the final week of the season, McDonagh, Hedman, Palat and Goodrow all missed games due to injury.
All signs point to all but Goodrow being available to start the playoffs, but one’s still left to wonder if they’re fully healthy or not. If they aren’t, that could affect their play which could hinder the team’s chances of winning games.
If there is a silver lining, coach Jon Cooper has plenty of depth up front. Both Ross Colton and Alex Barre-Boulet have impressed in their first big league action, making it difficult to keep either one out of the lineup regularly.
On defense, there’s less depth. That means any major injury to Hedman, Sergachev, Cernak or McDonagh could derail their chance of winning back-to-back Cups. In saying that, Cal Foote showed a little progress in his rookie season and might be ready to prove himself after a tough end to his year.
Can the Lightning accomplish the rare feat of winning back-to-back Stanley Cups? They have the talent and experience but do they have the rest of the keys to success? If they do, there’s a high probability. If not, this will likely be their shortest playoff appearance in two years.