March is a month away and now teams are scrambling to keep pace and hopefully make it into the NCAA basketball tournament.
This is bubble watch and I’ll be updating you on all of the Florida teams currently sitting on the bubble (there’s a lot of them). There is currently only one team safe right now and that’s FAU, but if the Owls lose a couple of games in a row, they could end up like Memphis on the outside looking in. However, for now, FAU is firmly in the field.
This leads us to the teams on the bubble. You have the Miami Hurricanes, Florida State Seminoles, South Florida Bulls, Florida Gators, and the UCF Knights. I’ll be breaking them down into tiers.
Tier One – The right side of the bubble
Tier Two – Wrong side of the bubble
Tier Three – Work to do.
Tier One: Right Side Of The Bubble
Florida Gators (15-6 /5-3 )
The Gators were firmly on the work-to-do side of things but a massive win in Lexington as Florida upset No. 10 Kentucky vaulted them into the last four. The Gators are riding a four-game win streak and finally got their first quad-one win. Even though this was a massive win, the Gators need to keep it going; their record vs. quad one teams is still abysmal at 1-6. Trending in the right direction, the Gators have a chance to firmly support themselves as a tournament team.
This team has all the talent to do it but can we talk about the disappointment Riley Kugel has had. He went from averaging 9 PPG and scouts salivating at the jump he was supposed to make and some people had him as a lottery-level pick. He hasn’t been close to that; being relegated to the bench and somehow having worse numbers than last year. The bright side to this is the transfers that came in: Walter Clayton (16.2 PPG), Tyrese Samuel (13.6 PPG/8.6 RPG), and Zyon Pullin (15.3 PPG). The transfers have finally meshed and are playing amazing basketball.
The Gators are a tournament team. But can they keep playing this high level of basketball to push through March? That is another trend with a lot of these teams. The teams that rely on a ton of transfers for high production are just hitting their stride now.
Tier Two: Wrong Side Of The Bubble
UCF Knights (12-8 / 3-5):
The Knights’ first year in the Big 12 has been nothing short of exciting and heart racing the entire way. A horrendous non-conference schedule is hurting UCF right now; they have one bad loss against Stetson. Even though they need a couple of big-time wins in the Big 12, you can do that every week. No team plays harder than the Knights. Take Coach Dawkins, for example, who watched their fight against Baylor. It’s hard not to root for these guys. At the 11-minute mark in the second half, all five Knights on the court slapped the ground in sync as they got ready to dig in their heels on defense, and that possession led to a block off the backboard. The Knights ended up losing the game but the fight was there. Jaylin Sellers and Darius Johnson have Knight fans everywhere believing this team can compete in the top basketball conference in the country. Out of all teams on this list, UCF can cement themselves pretty easily into the tourney. They play three ranked teams in a row; if they can win two of three they vault themselves as a real contender to make the tourney.
USF Bulls (14-5/7-1)
The AAC is really bad and this is going to hurt the Bulls, who have been one of the hottest teams in the country. USF is another team built around transfers. It’s taken them a while to get going but the Bulls are plowing full speed ahead now.
After a brutal home loss to Main, USF made some adjustments. They started playing through junior center Kaesean Pryor, who’s been on a absolute tear since the start of January. He’s been averaging over 15 points a game and eight rebounds a game over the last five games. The guard plays as well with Chris Youngblood (14.5 PPG) and highly touted freshman guard Jayden Reid (7 PPG and 3.7 APG) make up a scary backcourt. Not only is this trio part of this amazing turnaround but the bench is incredible with Jose Placer (7.4 PPG) and the best sixth man in the country, Selton Miguel (14.5 PPG). Having these weapons all over the court is a rarity and if this team can continue to dominate the AAC, I see no reason why they shouldn’t make the tourney.
I did speak to a bracketologist via Twitter and he did say that there is a 98% chance USF would have to win their conference tourney to make the NCAA tournament. The Bulls have the team to make some noise come March, but will they get the chance to?
Tier Three: Work To Do
Miami Hurricanes (15-7/6-5)
There has been so much hype for the Hurricanes to build off last year’s run to the Final Four but it’s been nothing short of a disaster. All this season has done is cement further that Mathew Cleveland and Nijel Pack aren’t winning basketball players. This sucks even more because Cleveland has all the tools to be a top-ten pick. ACC conference play has been awful as Miami sputters to a 6-5 record. This just shows how integral Jordan Miller was to this team, a Swiss army knife defensively and what generational Miami legend Isaiah Wong meant to the program. Cleveland was supposed to fill Miller’s role but has done a poor job of it.
There are some positives, however. Freshman Kyshawn George has been amazing since Wooga Poplar went down. Losing Poplar for a couple of games was brutal because before that injury, he was on another planet averaging over 15 points per game while shooting 50% from the field and 50% from three. I had him as a player of the year candidate after Thanksgiving but since coming back from injury, he just hasn’t been the same and his numbers have dipped. Poplar is still a good player but no longer playing like a top-five NBA prospect. If he can find his rhythm again, watch out. Now there’s work to do and plenty of chance to do it. Miami’s next three games are vs Virginia, UNC, and Clemson. If they somehow go 3-0, they will vault everyone on this list, something a team like USF will never be able to do because of the teams they play. I hope Mathew Cleveland can prove me wrong.
FSU Seminoles (12-8/6-3)
The Noles could be in tier one if they somehow knocked off UNC but they fell just short. But this is a completely different team than they had in the first half of the season. Primo Spears getting eligibility is huge and has already made a big impact. This team can keep chipping away and finish top three in the ACC. They may have a shot at the NCAA tourney. This team is incredible on defense and a tough watch on offense but getting microwave scorer finally gives this offense some life. Does Coach Ham have one more run in him?