This is week 18, and the AFC East is still open for anyone to take, yet it is fairly simple to win that division.
If the Miami Dolphins win, they take the crown of the AFC East. If the Bills win, they take the crown of the AFC East.
These two teams already played one another earlier in the season and it went great…. for one team. The Bills won 48-20 in Buffalo in convincing fashion.
The Bills are deadly if they play their version of football. Their version is turnover-free football, spreading the ball around, running the ball, and allowing Josh Allen to be himself without needing to be superman. Josh Allen has thrown for 3,947 yards with 27 touchdowns this season. However, he has thrown the second-most interceptions in the entire league with 16, and has committed five fumbles as well.
Running back James Cook has rushed for 1,086 yards this season. It’s the first time in his career he reached the 1000 yard mark, but he only has two rushing touchdowns. Through the air, Cook has 429 yards and four touchdowns. He has come out as a true dual-threat running back this year and has put it on display multiple times. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs has 1,096 yards and eight touchdowns on the year despite not going for more than 50 yards in six of his last seven games.
In division games, particularly division-clinching games between two teams that hate each other, stats/projections do not tell the story as usual. The Bills have role-players and rookies such as Dalton Kincaid and Gabe Davis that can take over a game. Kincaid has come on quietly, but efficiently, as he has the second-most catches and targets on the team. We all know about “Playoff Gabe” as back in 2022 he caught eight balls for 201 yards and four touchdowns. Davis can pour it on if the Dolphins are not careful. The role players, as well as the stars, are crucial to winning this game for the Bills.
Buffalo’s defense is hungrier than ever having won five of their last six games. They started December with a 7-6 record being seen as a “dangerous” Wild Card team. Fast forward, they very well could win the AFC East with an 11-6 record if they win on Sunday. The Bills are a sack machine having four guys with over 6.5 sacks and two guys with over 9.5 on the year. Ed Oliver is their main threat in the middle of that Bills defensive line as he has 9.5 sacks, 14 tackles for loss, three passes defended, and one interception on the season. Rasul Douglas has four interceptions on the season, and Terrel Bernard has three.
This Bills defense is top 10 in total defense, top seven in passing, top 15 in rushing, and top five in scoring. The Bills make it very hard for opposing offenses to even move the ball let alone score. The Bills held the Chiefs to 17 points in Arrowhead and held Dallas, a top three offense, to just 10 points.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins are just as explosive. The Fins are made of speed more than anything else. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill has 1,717 yards and 12 touchdowns on the year. Starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has a league-leading 4,451 yards with 28 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Miami has a double-edged sword at running back with Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane combining for 1,756 yards and 25 touchdowns on the ground with 367 yards and four touchdowns through the air. Miami can have both on the field at the same time and make it a true track and field match or they can have mercy and use one at a time. However, Mostert comes into Sunday’s matchup as questionable and he is expected to not play.
Just like Buffalo, Miami has key role players. Durham Smythe will be Miami’s most crucial role player Sunday against the Bills, especially with Jaylen Waddle coming in as questionable (expected to not play). Smythe had a career game against the Ravens with three receptions for 54 yards. On paper, it wasn’t that good, but he was always there for a crucial third down conversion and a nice safety block. Smythe has shined in McDaniel’s system so far with not only blocking but the passing game.
This Dolphins defense is not as scary as it could be Sunday. Miami will have to trout out their second and third string linebackers to rush Josh Allen. Their leading sack machine, Bradley Chubb, is out for the year with a torn ACL. Chubb finished with 11 sacks and six forced fumbles. Luckily, the Fins have Zach Sieler, who has 9.5 sacks, four passes defended, and one interception on the season. Christian Wilkins is next up, too, with eight sacks and 10 tackles for loss. Miami will also have a healthy Jalen Ramsay and Jerome Baker, who was just taken off of injured reserve.
Miami’s defense is top 10 in overall defense, top 12 in passing defense, top seven in rush defense, and top 12 in third-down defense. Going against the Ravens last week derailed Miami’s defensive rankings but going against the best offense in the league will do that to a defense.
Matching up against the Bills is going to be fun. Does Vic Fangio look at Ramsey during the biggest game of the year and say, “Go out and lock down Diggs”? The Dolphins’ defensive line against James Cook and more importantly Josh Allen is a good one. Who is going to cover Diggs and Davis? How are the Dolphins going to try and exploit the Bills’ lack of defensive backs?
This entire season has led to one game to determine the AFC East. After 18 weeks of hard-nosed, injury-plagued football, the last three months simmer down to 60 minutes. A lot of fun matchups, and a lot of fun questions, all to be answered Sunday night in Miami. For the right to call themselves the 2023 AFC East Division winner, it will be Bills vs. Dolphins at 8:20 pm EST.