Since winning the No. 1 overall pick from the 2022 NBA Draft Lottery, there has been plenty of speculation regarding who the Orlando Magic will select with the first pick in the Draft. This upcoming decision for the Magic is one of the hardest in recent memory, as there is no clear-cut top prospect. As a result, Duke’s Paolo Banchero, Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren, and Auburn’s Jabari Smith all have strong cases as the draft’s No. 1 pick, due to their unique physiques and basketball skill sets. With this said, selecting any of the three aforementioned draft prospects wouldn’t be bad, as each of them can help contribute toward the Magic’s ongoing rebuild. In spite of this, Orlando’s front office will have to come to a unified decision on June 23rd, when the 2022 NBA Draft will begin. With the 2022 NBA Draft just ten days away, each basketball analyst has their own opinions on who Orlando should take No. 1 out of Banchero, Holmgren, and Smith.
Jabari Smith, SF/PF, University of Auburn
Like Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren, Smith is an incredibly unique draft prospect with a great set of all-around skills. Standing at 6’10” and 220 pounds, Smith impacted the game in a multitude of ways at Auburn, averaging 16.9 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 2.0 APG in 34 games. When Smith isn’t attacking the paint, he’s likely out on the perimeter knocking down deep field-goal attempts. This past season, Smith went 42.9% from the field, 42.0% from three-point range, and 79.9% from the free-throw line. With Smith possessing a smooth shooting form paired with a high ball release, it’s no wonder that Smith is nearly automatic from downtown. Smith’s ability to score at all three levels of the floor has made him so special, as his offense seems to have no key flaws.
Although Smith’s per-game averages of 1.7 SPG and 1.0 BPG aren’t too impressive at face value, his impact on the defensive end of the floor can’t be understated. While at Auburn, Smith used his major length and size to successfully guard any opposing player, including shifter guards. In doing so, Smith typically pressured his opponents into bad shots or turnovers, which is evident in his 90.7 defensive rating (Eighth in SEC) and 3.8 defensive box plus/minus (14th in SEC). Despite this, Smith will definitely need to work on defending the paint against bigger and stronger forwards in the NBA, as those opposing forwards usually had their way when working on Smith one-on-one in the paint. This past season, Smith was typically bailed out of this by teammate Center Walker Kessler, but there’s no guarantee that Smith will be paired with a lockdown rim protector in the NBA.
“Smith is my favorite prospect in the class because he possesses the combination of skills that are most in-demand in the current NBA. He’s an elite shooter who made 42 percent from 3 in 2021-22 while also possessing enough athleticism and shot-creation ability to get to his pull-up jumper. I see him as an efficient 20-plus point-per-game scorer and a versatile defender who can switch across multiple positions.” – Sam Vecenie, The Athletic, May 17th, 2022.
“He [Smith] isn’t the player ready to help you the most now, but in five years, the 6-foot-10 Smith could be putting up Chris Bosh numbers in Orlando. The Magic front office under John Hammond has prioritized length in recent years (Jalen Suggs, Mo Bamba, Jonathan Isaac).” – Jason McIntyre, Fox Sports, May 18th, 2022
“The Magic could be pulled three different directions atop this draft. This front office has an affinity for length—see its previous selections of Jonathan Isaac and Mo Bamba—which won’t make it easy to overlook Chet Holmgren. This offense, the league’s only attack lacking a 17-point scorer, needs a focal point, which could be an argument for Paolo Banchero. And yet, Jabari Smith seems the likeliest selection here.” – Zach Buckley, Bleacher Report, May 28th, 2022.
“Most NBA teams are operating under the assumption that Smith will end up hearing his name called here, as he fits both the front office and coaching staff’s philosophy for what they look for in a prospect. He is also an outstanding fit for a Magic team that badly struggled to space the floor effectively last season. Smith was arguably the most dynamic shooter in college, converting 42% of his 3-pointers despite standing 6-foot-10.” – Jonathan Givony, ESPN, May 31st, 2022.
“Nailing the first overall pick in this year’s draft is a must for the Orlando Magic, especially since they already have a ton of talented, youthful pieces in place on their roster. Adding a player like Jabari Smith Jr. who not only has star-like potential on both ends of the floor, but fills an immediate scoring void on the wing is something the Magic must consider.” – Brett Siegel, Sports Illustrated, June Fifth, 2022.
“Smith is still the safest option at No. 1 and has interviewed incredibly well for teams at the top. He’s not the consensus overall top pick in the draft, but his upside is incredible with his 3-point shooting (averaging 42% from deep) and his footwork in the paint.” – Krysten Peek, Yahoo! Sports, June Seventh, 2022.
Chet Holmgren, PF/C, University of Gonzaga
Over the last 20 years, the NBA has seen its share of very uniquely built draft prospects. Of all the unique former draft prospects, Holmgren trumps them all, as a 7’0″, 195-pound unicorn. Holmgren’s unheard-of height gives the Gonzaga standout an incredible defensive presence, which is fueled by his 7’6″ wingspan. Holmgren’s success in defending the paint has made him one of the premier defensive players in this draft class, as he led the West Coast Conference (WCC) in total rebounds (317), defensive rebounds (260), and blocks (117). In addition to this, Holmgren is very disciplined when it comes to grabbing rebounds and blocking shots. This is why Holmgren also led the WCC in defensive rebound percentage (28.7%) and block percentage (12.6%). Finally, Holmgren’s great lateral quickness and fluid footwork allow him to successfully defend guards out on the perimeter, where he can contest and block field goal attempts.
It’s worth noting that Holmgren isn’t just great at defense, but also with scoring the ball. In 32 games this season, Holmgren averaged 14.4 PPG, 9.9 RPG (1.8 ORPG), and 1.9 APG while shooting 60.7% from the field, 39.0% from three-point range, and 71.7% from the free-throw line. Even though his PPG averages may seem modest, Holmgren was as efficient as any player in the country, leading the nation in two-point field goal percentage (73.7%) and effective field goal percentage (68.0%) while finishing second in true shooting percentage (69.1%). To no one’s surprise, Holmgren’s collegiate success as a 19-year-old made him a consensus All-American and the 2021-2022 WCC Rookie and Defensive of the Year award winner. Holmgren will obviously need to put substantial weight on before playing in the NBA, but his talent is certainly unquestionable, and would pair nicely with star forward Wendell Carter Jr. in the frontcourt.
“I understand the concerns about Holmgren’s slight frame — but he’s such a unique talent that I’d be uncomfortable passing on a 7-foot legitimate rim-protector who can also bounce it like a guard and reliably make 3-pointers. He’s the most talented prospect in this draft and should be selected as such.” – Gary Parrish, CBS Sports, May 18th, 2022.
“Orlando has often taken the best-player-available approach and that is unlikely to change now. They value those prospects with tremendous upside, which could point to Holmgren. He is viewed as perhaps the player with the most room to grow among Paolo Banchero and Jabari Smith Jr.” – Cody Taylor, Rookie Wire, June 3rd, 2022
“The Magic are back at no. 1 for the first time since 2004 when they took Dwight Howard, and another franchise center could be falling into their laps. From Giannis Antetokoumpo to Jonathan Isaac, John Hammond and Jeff Weltman have a history of drafting lengthy prospects going back to their time running the Bucks. Holmgren fits the same description, looking and playing like a skinnier Rudy Gobert with athleticism and elite awareness. Holmgren would thrive next to Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner as a supporting piece around the rim, and if Isaac is able to return healthy they’d have the upside to have a formidable defense. On offense, Holmgren could serve as a lob threat who can also drain 3s and make plays off the dribble. Playing in Orlando should allow him to show even more depth on offense”. – Kevin O’Connor, The Ringer, May 17th, 2022.
“Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren could play with his former high school and AAU teammate, Jalen Suggs, on the Magic. Although he is one of the most polarizing prospects in this class because he is so skinny, there is little doubt that Holmgren has elite upside. With a 7-foot-6 wingspan, he has the length that Orlando’s front office typically values, and he is a top-tier rim protector who can swallow his opponents alive in the paint. He had little trouble scoring near the basket, and he was also one of the most productive 3-point shooters when in transition on the trailer.” – Bryan Kalbrosky, USA Today, May 17th, 2022.
Paolo Banchero, PF/C, University of Duke
Throughout the 2021-2022 college basketball regular season, it seemed as if Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren or Auburn’s Jabari Smith would go No 1., and for good reason. Both Holmgren and Smith had superb statistical seasons, and led their respected colleges to No. 1 and No 2. seeds in March Madness. In spite of this, Center is not a glaring positional need for the Magic, as Carter Jr. and Mo Bamba both played well this season. With that being said, Duke’s Banchero offers Orlando the most positional versatility, and has proven that his talent is undeniable. In 38 games this season, Banchero has averaged a team-high 17.1 PPG, 7.7 RPG, and 3.2 APG, while shooting 47.8% from the field and 33.3% from three-point range. Banchero has even elevated his game for March Madness, averaging 18.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG, and 3.7 APG, and has led Duke to their 17th Final Four appearance.
While the statistics may not paint the entire picture of Banchero’s game, Banchero was the 2021-2022 ACC Rookie of the Year and a Consensus All-American for a reason. Banchero’s collegiate success is in large part to his size, which is one of the biggest strengths of his game. At 6’10” and 250 pounds, Banchero’s size gives him an undeniable physical presence that allows him to either dominate as a point forward, or just as a traditional big man. That physical presence has made it a challenge for opposing teams to guard Banchero, as he has an effective post-up and paint game against smaller guards, converting on 52.7% of his two-point attempts. If Banchero is matched up with bigger forwards and centers, then Banchero can knock down shots on the perimeter at a reliable rate. Banchero does need to clean up simple mistakes, as he averaged 2.4 TPG and 1.9 FPG this season.
“Banchero has maintained his status as our top prospect from the very start of this draft cycle because of his striking combination of size and offensive skill. At 6’10, 250 pounds, Banchero has the ball-handling and live dribble passing chops of a guard with multiple avenues to produce points for himself and his teammates. He already has an advanced midrange scoring package and the strength to bully defenders down low. He’s also one of the very best passers in this draft class, using his size to drop beautiful high-low dimes and the threat of his scoring to hit open teammates when defenses send two to the ball. Banchero is not an elite athlete in terms of speed or vertical explosiveness, and there are questions about how he’ll translate defensively. The three-point shot is his other big swing skill after hitting 33.8 percent of his triples at Duke. No other player in this class has a better chance to become a primary offensive option at the next level, and that’s why Banchero is our top prospect.” – Ricky O’Donnell, SB Nation, May 17th, 2022.